The long-term interest rate is a central variable in the
macroeconomy. It matters to borrowers looking to start a business
or purchase a home; to lenders weighing the risks and rewards of
extending credit; to savers preparing for college or retirement;
and to policymakers gauging the state of the economy and financing
government expenditure. The global financial crisis and the
aggressive policy response pushed long-term interest rates in the
United States and in many advanced economies to historically low
levels. But today's low-rate environment is not just a cyclical
story. Interest rates had been falling worldwide for nearly twenty
years before the crisis. Despite the magnitude and persistence of
the secular downtrend, the explanation for the decline is one of
the most vexing questions faced by macroeconomists today. The
future path of interest rates is even less clear. This book surveys
the recent thinking on the many drivers of long-term interest rates
in recent decades and going forward. In addition, this book
provides a speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Bernanke at the
Sandridge Lecture which discusses the global saving glut and the
U.S. current deficit.
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