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Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions - Modelling, Statistical Inference, and Application to Business Cycle Analysis (Paperback)
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Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions - Modelling, Statistical Inference, and Application to Business Cycle Analysis (Paperback)
Series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 454
Expected to ship within 10 - 15 working days
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This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical
analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts.
Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling
non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic
time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and
operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic
systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching
vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive
analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector
autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The
statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical
business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my
dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of
the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of
unpublished material which has been presented during the last years
at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were
written while I was supported by the Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg
Angewandte Mikrookonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the
Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally
completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic
Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council
(ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of
Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions
for their support of my research embodied in this study."
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