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Nightmare Pipeline Failures - Fantasy Planning, Black Swans And Integrity Management (Paperback)
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Nightmare Pipeline Failures - Fantasy Planning, Black Swans And Integrity Management (Paperback)
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The worst nightmares of the oil and gas pipeline industry are
coming true in the United States.High-pressure natural gas
pipelines run underground through many suburban areas as part of
the network providing fuel to homes and businesses. This
infrastructure poses an immense, but insufficiently recognised,
threat to the general public. In 2010, one of these pipelines
ruptured in San Bruno, a suburb of San Francisco adjacent to the
international airport. The result was a massive explosion and fire
in which eight people died, many were injured, and 38 homes were
destroyed. This possibility haunts many cities around the
world.Coincidentally in the same year, another worst-case scenario
came true, near Marshall, in the state of Michigan. A pipeline
rupture released vast quantities of oily sludge into a local river
system. The smell was so offensive that many nearby residents were
forced to sell their homes and get out. The clean-up cost the
pipeline owner more than a billion dollars, making it the most
expensive oil spill on land in US history.This book examines the
causes of these two events. It argues that, although they were
profoundly surprising to the companies concerned, from a broader
perspective they were no surprise at all, stemming as they did from
well-known human, organisational and regulatory failures. In
particular, we emphasise two contrasting but equally flawed
approaches to prevention of rare but catastrophic events.Fantasy
planningCompanies often try to convince themselves, regulators and
members of the public that they have the relevant hazards under
control because they have elaborate plans to deal with them. When
it comes to the point, these plans turn out to be wildly optimistic
and full of unjustified assumptions and inaccurate data. Their
function is symbolic rather than instrumental - that is, they serve
as statements that the hazard is under control, rather than as real
instruments of control. Fantasy planning was very evident in both
accidents.Black swansThe second approach adopts the currently
fashionable "black swan" metaphor. In Europe, historically, all
swans are white, and Europeans could not conceive of a black swan -
until they discovered Australia. In the 21st century, the concept
of a black swan has taken on new meaning - a rare event with major
impact, quite unpredictable at the time, although possibly
explicable in hindsight. Nowadays, major industrial accidents, such
as the blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, are sometimes
referred to as black swans. But here the analogy breaks down. Black
swans were unforeseeable to Europeans. Major accidents are not
unforeseeable to risk analysts. In fact, it is their responsibility
to foresee them and to put in place barriers against them.
Accidents occur when those barriers fail. The metaphor is therefore
wrong. In fact, it seems to be nothing more than a contemporary
version of the idea that major accidents are inevitable - the
'stuff happens' view of risk management.Integrity managementThese
two concepts shed new light on why integrity management is so
difficult to get right and also how it can be improved. We hope
that those in positions of responsibility in companies that have
responsibility for hazardous facilities will feel the need to
scrutinise their own integrity management systems with these
absurdities in mind. The major failings we have identified provide
valuable lessons for all organisations that use risk assessments to
manage and prioritise routine activities.Oxford University Press
Australia & New Zealand is the non-exclusive distributor of
this title.
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