This myth shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used
to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it
coming and shows how those methods can help us make sense of the
present and prepare for the future.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and
the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis
well in advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession who
treat economic disasters as freakish once-in?a-lifetime events
without clear cause, Roubini, after decades of careful research
around the world, realized that they were both probable and
predictable. Armed with an unconventional blend of historical
analysis and global economics, Roubini has forced politicians,
policy makers, investors, and market watchers to face a
long-neglected truth: financial systems are inherently fragile and
prone to collapse.
Drawing on the parallels from many countries and centuries,
Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, a professor of economic history
and a "New York Times Magazine" writer, show that financial
cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as capitalism itself. The
last two decades alone have witnessed comparable crises in
countries as diverse as Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan, and
Argentina. All of these crises-not to mention the more sweeping
cataclysms such as the Great Depression-have much in common with
the current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear
on our present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can
recognize and grapple with the inherent instability of the global
financial system, understand its pressure points, learn from
previous episodes of "irrational exuberance," pinpoint the course
of global contagion, and plan for our immediate future. Perhaps
most important, the authors-considering theories, statistics, and
mathematical models with the skepticism that recent history
warrants- explain how the world's economy can get out of the mess
we're in, and stay out.
In Roubini's shadow, economists and investors are increasingly
realizing that they can no longer afford to consider crises the
black swans of financial history. A vital and timeless book,
"Crisis Economics" proves calamities to be not only predictable but
also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.
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