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Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa (Paperback)
Loot Price: R551
Discovery Miles 5 510
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Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa (Paperback)
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Loot Price R551
Discovery Miles 5 510
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North African economies are characterized by a significant share of
informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in
North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social
protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced
by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few
key structural characteristics could explain "normal" informality
in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess
informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high
informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and
younger population help explain the high informality in the region,
as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to
operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of
policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in
North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the
quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality
experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In
this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and
Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in
a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In
contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania,
and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business
regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued
progress in economic development. While informality has
traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of
recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African
economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment
rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high
levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen
significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown
measures have particularly affected high-informality service
sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are
removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a
stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an
inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts
to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer
systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in
the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal
workers.
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