Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of
chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a
developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for
towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?
Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,
or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be
saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds
for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when as
occurred in L Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California there is
a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic
eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that
society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature
surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or
has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments.
In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite
expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited
resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the
problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural
hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk
analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of
different options, in situations where the future is very
uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without
such analysis, the results are often disappointing. This book uses
general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better
by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than
treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and
policy formulation separately. Thought-provoking questions at the
end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues
involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and
students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or
policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level
undergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be
found at: http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature
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