The wide-spread fear that the global economy could be marred by
another global sovereign debt crisis on top of the deepest
recession we have had since the 1930s makes it worthwhile to
explore the historical patterns of sovereign default one more time
and analyze whether currently almost defaulting countries that are
not usually associated with such behavior actually fit them.
Traditional measures of default likelihood fail to account for the
debt crash of non-emerging European economies, and suggests
alternative ways of evaluating and overcoming the challenges of
avoiding default during global recessions for countries that are
non-typical defaulters. The facts that the countries with
unsustainable sovereign debt (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy,
Ireland) belong to the European Union and use the Euro play an
important role both in explaining their current financial situation
and in analyzing the possible outcome of the crisis. Is the current
sovereign debt crisis the ultimate test for the real world economic
viability of regional intergovernmental organizations such as the
EU?
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