Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for its livelihood. The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be effectively dealt with-hand the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited-without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives-one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions-also known as 'climate-smart agriculture'. Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programmes, and investments. The book also highlights the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and offers a map for navigating the risks and realising the opportunities. Finally, a detailed explanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programmes in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.

This book illustrates the World Bank s commitment to assist countries to respond to the opportunities and challenges posed by climate change. Undertaken in collaborative partnership with policy makers, farmers, civil society, and other stakeholders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, it provides a much needed response to the call for action by quantifying the impact and identifying key priorities for policies, programs, and investments to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change in the South Caucasus. The study responds to the urgent need for climate adaptation, as highlighted in the World Bank s Turn Down the Heat report. Notably, the South Caucasus is already contending with increasing aridity and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. severe droughts, floods and hailstorms). It presents practical solutions for a more climate smart agriculture, at the regional, national and agro-ecological zone level in each country. The recommendations offered in this book are a compilation of the results of the three national studies, and highlight the need and potential for regional collaborative action to increase benefits, while also continuing to emphasize the need for an effective response at the national level. The national level results are supported by country reports, which provide more details. This work is but an important beginning. To achieve the goals of climate resilience in the agriculture sector, more work is needed to translate the proposals into reality. The analysis demonstrates that investments in irrigation infrastructure and on-farm technologies have great potential to raise agricultural productivity and improve the climate resilience of the sector. Demand-side agricultural water management will have high short-term payoffs, and these short-term payoffs are complementary to the success of long- term irrigation, drainage and other infrastructure investments. Strengthening the disaster risk management strategies (beyond agricultural measures) are also needed to help mitigate household risks from extreme events, especially for the poorest, who are the most vulnerable."