Most wars between countries end quickly and at relatively low
cost. The few in which high-intensity fighting continues for years
bring about a disproportionate amount of death and suffering. What
separates these few unusually long and intense wars from the many
conflicts that are far less destructive? In Logics of War, Alex
Weisiger tests three explanations for a nation's decision to go to
war and continue fighting regardless of the costs. He combines
sharp statistical analysis of interstate wars over the past two
centuries with nine narrative case studies. He examines both
well-known conflicts like World War II and the Persian Gulf War, as
well as unfamiliar ones such as the 1864 1870 Paraguayan War (or
the War of the Triple Alliance), which proportionally caused more
deaths than any other war in modern history.
When leaders go to war expecting easy victory, events usually
correct their misperceptions quickly and with fairly low
casualties, thereby setting the stage for a negotiated agreement. A
second explanation involves motives born of domestic politics; as
war becomes more intense, however, leaders are increasingly
constrained in their ability to continue the fighting. Particularly
destructive wars instead arise from mistrust of an opponent's
intentions. Countries that launch preventive wars to forestall
expected decline tend to have particularly ambitious war aims that
they hold to even when fighting goes poorly. Moreover, in some
cases, their opponents interpret the preventive attack as evidence
of a dispositional commitment to aggression, resulting in the
rejection of any form of negotiation and a demand for unconditional
surrender. Weisiger s treatment of a topic of central concern to
scholars of major wars will also be read with great interest by
military historians, political psychologists, and
sociologists."
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