North Korea's conventional capabilities have eroded but remain
significant, including its sizeable contingent of special
operations forces. Meanwhile, Pyongyang continues the vigorous
development of its nuclear and missile programs, and has ongoing
chemical and biological weapons programs. Perhaps the biggest
unanswered questions concern North Korea's military intentions.
Does the Korean People's Army have an offensive or defensive
doctrine? Does Pyongyang intend to use its weapons of mass
destruction and ballistic missiles to replace the threat posed by
its eroding conventional forces? Or is its intention to use
conventional and unconventional forces in what it might view as a
winning combination? In theory, U.S. forces could carry out
preemptive precision attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear
facilities and missile emplacements, but such attacks might provoke
North Korean retaliation and trigger a general conflict. Washington
and Seoul cannot overthrow the North Korean regime by force or
destroy its strategic military assets without risking devastating
losses in the process. Meanwhile, North Korea cannot invade the
South without inviting a fatal counterattack from the United States
and South Korea. Thus, the balance of forces that emerged from the
Korean War, and which helped maintain the armistice for more than
50 years, remains in place.
General
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