The success over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently,
the average level of nominal interest rates has increased the
likelihood that the nominal policy interest rate may become
constrained by the zero lower bound. When that happens, a central
bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further
interest-rate reductions and must rely on "non-standard" policy
alternatives. To assess the potential effectiveness of such
policies, we analyze the behavior of selected asset prices over
short periods surrounding central bank statements or other types of
financial or economic news and estimate "noarbitrage" models of the
term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some
evidence that central bank communications can help to shape public
expectations of future policy actions and that asset purchases in
large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or
yield of the targeted asset.
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