How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the
scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating
attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from
terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack
examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most
cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl
challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure,
which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get
lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the
imagination and collaboration to "connect the dots" of available
information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with
intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not
more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of
precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of
decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the
warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book
offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and
terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and
the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also
presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture
before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available
since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging
some of that report's findings.
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