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The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes - Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses (Hardcover, Reprinted from OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW, 7:Sup.1, 1997)
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The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes - Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses (Hardcover, Reprinted from OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW, 7:Sup.1, 1997)
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ical) and to self-fulfilling currency crisis, respectively.
Research stressing the former approach was pioneered by Krugman
(1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). According to this line of
research, the failure of governments to adopt domestic monetary and
fiscal policies consistent with their stated exchange rate targets
leads to a gradual diminution of reserves and eventually a stock
adjustment that depletes reserves suddenly in one attack (Sachs,
Tornell, and Velasco, 1996, page 47). The result is either a
devaluation of the exchange rate or a switch to floating.
Subsequent work of this genre has specified a number of other
channels, in addition to that involving inconsistent and
unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies, that can precipitate an
attack: 1. Inconsistency between external and internal objectives.
The stances of monetary and fiscal policies may be consistent with
the authorities' exchange rate target, but domestic economic
indicators (such as the unemployment rate) may be inconsistent with
internal balance, resulting in pressures on the authorities to
relax macroeconomic policies. Private agents, aware of this
inconsistency, perceive an opportunity for profits from a currency
devaluation and precipitate an attack. 2. Contagion effects. Prior
to an attack on another currency (say that of country B), the
market may view a country's (say, country A's) exchange rate as
consistent with economic fundamentals and, thus, sustainable.
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