Would the Islamic State ever renounce violence? In the current
political climate, the question seems preposterous. Yet, at the
height of a terrorist campaign against tourists in Egypt during the
1990s, nobody expected that the group behind the attacks would
issue and adhere to a nonviolence initiative. What drives groups to
shift between nonviolence and violence? When do opposition groups
move away from armed action, and why do some organizations renounce
violence permanently, whereas others refrain temporarily? In The
Violence Pendulum, Ioana Emy Matesan offers a theory of tactical
change that explains both escalation and de-escalation in order to
answer these questions. Matesan's analysis traces the historical
evolution of four Islamist groups: the Muslim Brotherhood and
al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya in Egypt, and Darul Islam and Jemaah
Islamiyah in Indonesia. Drawing from archival materials,
interviews, and reports, she focuses on turning points in each
organization. Ultimately, she finds that Islamist groups alter
their tactics in response to the perceived need for activism,
shifts in the cost of violent versus nonviolent resistance, and
internal or external pressures on the organization. Groups turn to
violence when grievances escalate, violent resistance is feasible
and publicly tolerated, and there are internal or external
pressures to act. In turn, groups renounce armed action when
violence costs them too much, disillusionment eclipses the
perceived need for continued activism, and leaders are willing to
rethink the tactics and strategies of the group. By uncovering the
reasons for escalation and de-escalation across a range of
political environments, The Violence Pendulum reshapes our
understanding of how decisions are made-and how nonviolence can be
achieved-in armed groups.
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