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The Portuguese Economy Towards 1992 - Proceedings of a conference sponsored by Junta Nacional de Investigacao Cientifica e Tecnologica and Banco de Portugal (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1992)
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The Portuguese Economy Towards 1992 - Proceedings of a conference sponsored by Junta Nacional de Investigacao Cientifica e Tecnologica and Banco de Portugal (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1992)
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This book contains papers presented at a conference held in
Vimeiro, Por- tugal, on March 23 and 24, 1991. The purpose of this
conference was to discuss several aspects of the portuguese
economy, namely issues and prob- lems related with the european
integration of 1992. The sponsorship has been provided by the Junta
N acional de Investiga~iio Cientifica e Tecno- logica, the
portuguese science and technology foundation, as well as by the
Banco de Portugal, the central bank. The first paper, by Horta
Correia, Cesar das Neves and Rebelo repre- sents an attempt to
characterize and to analyze the main features of the portuguese
business cycles. Making use of the real business cycle method-
ology, the authors contrast the properties of the portuguese
empirical regu- larities with those of other OEeD countries and
conclude that the economic fluctuations in Portugal seem much more
severe. On the other hand, the rel- ative volatility of the various
series analyzed, as well as their co-movement and serial
correlation properties, are of the same order of those in other
DECD countries. Horta Correia, Cesar das Neves and Rebelo evaluate
the properties of the portuguese time series in light of the
predictions of two dynamic general equilibrium models: a closed
economy model and a model of a small open economy. Surprisingly,
their closed economy model provides a good fit for the portuguese
fluctuations, while the small open economy model predicts
unplausibly low volatilities for both aggregate consumption and the
trade balance.
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