Once every decade, it is "decline time" in America. In recent
years, it has been the unstoppable rise of China that has spelled
"finis America." What the Chinese juggernaut is today, the Soviet
Union ("We shall bury you") was in the 1950s. The Vietnam decade of
the 1960s was described as America s "collective suicide attempt,"
while in the 1970s, the United States succumbed to Jimmy Carter s
famous "malaise," as the dollar dangerously plummeted. The 1980s
unquestionably belonged to a resurgent Japan, the "Rising Sun,"
whereas in the 1990s, Europe shone forth as an "empire by example."
In the naughts, it was "Asia Rising" that became the flavor of the
decade. Despite a litany of prognostications, these contenders have
all fallen back, one by one.
While it may be catnip for the media to play up America as a
has-been, Josef Joffe, a leading German commentator and Stanford
University academic, compellingly shows that Declinism is not a
cold-eyed diagnosis but a device in the style of the ancient
prophets: "Thou shalt perish, unless " Gloom is a prophecy that
must be believed so that it will turn out wrong. Joffe repeatedly
demonstrates how the "economic miracles" that propelled the rising
tide of challengers flounder against their own limits. Hardly
confined to Europe alone, Declinism has also been an especially
nifty career builder for American politicians, among them Kennedy,
Nixon, and Reagan, who all rode into the White House by hawking
"the end is near."
Buttressing his argument with facts, Joffe demonstrates that
America s future is sanguine. In contrast to the Carter years, the
economic woes of the Obama era look more like a nasty migraine. By
historical standards, the U.S. defense burden today is
extraordinarily low, hence sustainable over the long haul.
Immigration (plus a healthy birth rate) will not only keep the
nation younger than China, Japan, Europe, and Russia but will
continue to bring in the world s best and brightest. Indeed,
America is the "world's Ph.D. factory" both in science and
engineering, while its R&D spending dwarfs the "rising rest."
Its uniquely deep and wide capital market encourages innovations
and continues to turn dreams into vibrant companies.
Joffe argues that it is only if America "freezes up" by
enshrining privilege, closing its doors, and withdrawing from the
world that it will succumb to the rigor mortis that has overwhelmed
previous empires. Effortlessly mixing keen historical insights with
brilliant diplomatic and economic analysis, The Myth of America's
Decline becomes a remarkable reflection on our nation s standing in
the world and an eye-opening account that challenges the pervasive
and now tired notion that America is on the decline."
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