Until the February 2004 gas crisis when Gazprom cut off all gas
flows via Belarus, the issue of Belarus as a gas transit route was
not addressed seriously despite this country's transiting around
20% of Russia's gas exports to Europe. The gas crisis threatened
the reliability of gas supplies to Europe. It demonstrated the
necessity of bringing Belarus back into focus, explaining how and
why the seemingly amicable Russian-Belarussian relationship had
deteriorated to such an extent, and suggesting how the problem
might evolve in the future. This book shows that the reliability of
the Belarussian gas transit routes is influenced by changes in the
intensity of the Russian-Belarussian integration and explores
whether Belarus is in a position to manage (or, indeed, survive)
within the new, 'commercial' framework to which the gas issues had
shifted following the failure to establish political union. The
book predicts that the mainstay of Belarussian welfare is bound to
deteriorate as Russia continues to increase its domestic gas prices
at 20% annually as part of its energy strategy and in line with WTO
requirements - thus, also making Belarus's independent stance
vis-a-vis Gazprom unsustainable. In order to secure gas prices at
the level of, at least, Russian domestic prices, Belarus is likely
to return to negotiating a joint venture operating the Belarussian
transit network together with Gazprom. Yet, even if such a joint
venture were to be formed, it would not eliminate the main reason
of the unreliability of gas transit via Belarus - the weakness of
the national economy. Therefore, unless Belarus embarks on reforms
leading to substantial gas conservation, it will continue to be
tempted to resort to unauthorised gas off-takes and non-payments
undermining the reliability of transit.
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