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The Senkaku Paradox - Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes (Paperback)
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The Senkaku Paradox - Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes (Paperback)
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America needs better options for resolving potential crises. In
recent years, the Pentagon has elevated its concerns about Russia
and China as potential military threats to the United States and
its allies. But what issues could provoke actual conflict between
the United States and either country? And how could such a conflict
be contained before it took the world to the brink of thermonuclear
catastrophe, as was feared during the cold war? Defense expert
Michael O'Hanlon wrestles with these questions in this insightful
book, setting them within the broader context of hegemonic change
and today's version of great-power competition. The book examines
how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more
dangerous threat to peace. What if, for example, Russia's "little
green men" seized control of a community, like Narva or an even
smaller town in Estonia, now a NATO ally? Or, what if China seized
one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered
by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? Such threats are
not necessarily imminent, but they are far from inconceivable.
Washington could be forced to choose, in these and similar cases,
between risking major war to reverse the aggression, and appeasing
China or Russia in ways that could jeopardize the broader global
order. O'Hanlon argues that the United States needs a better range
of options for dealing with such risks to peace. He advocates
"integrated deterrence," which combines military elements with
economic warfare. The military components would feature
strengthened forward defenses as well as, possibly, limited
military options against Russian or Chinese assets in other
theaters. Economic warfare would include offensive elements,
notably sanctions, as well as measures to ensure the resilience of
the United States and allies against possible enemy reprisal. The
goal is to deter war through a credible set of responses that are
more commensurate than existing policy with the stakes involved in
such scenarios.
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