Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial
economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on
insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry
and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues that such
crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and
avoidable. A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major
crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain,
Germany, France, Japan, and China—including the Great Depression
and the economic meltdown of 2008. Vague demonstrates that the
over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other
variable of explaining and predicting financial crises. In a series
of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the
rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which then
led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures. This cycle,
according to Vague, is the essence of financial crises and the
script they invariably follow. The story of financial crisis is
fundamentally the story of private debt and runaway lending.
Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle,
Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers, and
private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs
before it begins again.
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