The creation of economic institutions that can function well under
substantial uncertainties -- Black Swans -- is analogous to the
dilemmas confronting our hunter-gatherer forefathers in the face of
large-scale ecological unpredictability. The ultimate solution was
not the development of a super hunter-gatherer technology that
could ride out repeated catastrophe, but rather the invention, in
neolithic times, of culturally-adapted 'farmed' ecosystems
constructed to maximize food yield and minimize risks of famine.
Recent advances in evolutionary and ecosystem theory applied to
economic structure and process may permit construction of both new
economic theory and new tools for data analysis that can help in
the design of more robust economic institutions. This may result in
less frequent and less disruptive transitions, and enable the
design of culturally-specific systems less affected by those that
do occur. This unique and innovative book applies cutting-edge
methods from cognitive science and evolutionary theory to the
problem of the necessary stabilization of economic processes. At
the core of this book is the establishment of a statistics-like
toolbox for the study of empirical data that is consistent with
generalized evolutionary approaches. This toolbox enables the
construction of both new economic theories and methods of data
analysis that can help in the design of more robust economic
institutions. This in turn will result in less frequent and less
disruptive Black Swans, and enable as well the design of
culturally-specific systems less affected by those that do occur.
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