Between 1974 and 1990 more than thirty countries in southern
Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe shifted from
authoritarian to democratic systems of government. This global
democratic revolution is probably the most important political
trend in the late twentieth century. In "The""Third Wave, "Samuel
P. Huntington analyzes the causes and nature of these democratic
transitions, evaluates the prospects for stability of the new
democracies, and explores the possibility of more countries
becoming democratic. The recent transitions, he argues, are the
third major wave of democratization in the modem world. Each of the
two previous waves was followed by a reverse wave in which some
countries shifted back to authoritarian government. Using concrete
examples, empirical evidence, and insightful analysis, Huntington
provides neither a theory nor a history of the third wave, but an
explanation of why and how it occurred.
Factors responsible for the democratic trend include the
legitimacy dilemmas of authoritarian regimes; economic and social
development; the changed role of the Catholic Church; the impact of
the United States, the European Community, and the Soviet Union;
and the "snowballing" phenomenon: change in one country stimulating
change in others. Five key elite groups within and outside the
nondemocratic regime played roles in shaping the various ways
democratization occurred. Compromise was key to all
democratizations, and elections and nonviolent tactics also were
central. New democracies must deal with the "torturer problem" and
the "praetorian problem" and attempt to develop democratic values
and processes. Disillusionment with democracy, Huntington argues,
is necessary to consolidating democracy. He concludes the book with
an analysis of the political, economic, and cultural factors that
will decide whether or not the third wave continues.
Several "Guidelines for Democratizers" offer specific, practical
suggestions for initiating and carrying out reform. Huntington's
emphasis on practical application makes this book a valuable tool
for anyone engaged in the democratization process. At this volatile
time in history, Huntington's assessment of the processes of
democratization is indispensable to understanding the future of
democracy in the world.
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