The rational expectations revolution and other developments in
economics (notably game theory) have fundamentally altered the
application of optimal control theory to economic forecasting and
planning. In particular, they have shown that economic systems
cannot be modelled simplistically on physical systems. However, as
the authors of this volume show, these developments have greatly
enhanced our understanding of how an economy functions, and now
make it possible for optimal control theory to be applied much more
effectively to economic modelling and planning. This book is
divided into two parts. The first presents the orthodox framework
but extends it to allow for multiplicative uncertainty, risk and
non-linearities in the econometric model. The second part looks
explicitly at the question of expectations. It provides methods by
which forward-looking expectations can be treated jointly with the
determination of economic policy. It also examines game-theoretic
considerations - where, for instance, policy makers may have
incentive to renege on their commitments.
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