The resurgence of Russian power in the Arctic and High North will
be a key consideration for NATO planners. The Alliance's northern
flank represents both a potential vulnerability due to its relative
isolation and an area in which NATO enjoys options for horizontal
escalation in a conflict. Moreover, as the effects of climate
change create opportunities for both navigation and resource
extraction, peacetime control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and
a contest to establish effective administrative control in this
area are likely. Disagreements regarding the degree of Russia's
jurisdiction over the NSR could, for example, simmer into a form of
sub-threshold competition. The purpose of this Whitehall Paper will
be to examine the balance of power between NATO and Russia in this
critical region in order to establish the level of ambition that
the capabilities being developed by Russia can support.
General
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