The fear that a conflict will spread is often used as a
justification for "peacekeeping" operations. But why and under what
conditions is war likely to widen? When are concerns warranted and
justified? This book answers these important policy
questions.
The book offers a theoretical explanation for war widening based on
the decisiveness of warfare in a given era. It argues that
conflicts are most likely to spread when the effects of warfare are
limited, as states seek limited gains with a low cost. In an era
where warfare is decisive, in other words, an era of total war,
wars are less likely to widen. By understanding whether a war
occurs in an era of total war or limited war, we can then assess
how likely that conflict is to spread.
The explanation of war widening is developed through four
historical cases: The Seven Years War, the French
Revolution/Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War and World War I. These
cases capture both eras of limited war, total war and the
transition between them. Finally the author looks to the future, to
foresee what developments might limit the costs of warfare and make
future conflicts likely to spread.
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