Stephen Van Evera frames five conditions that increase the risk of
interstate false optimism about the likely outcome of a war, a
fast-strike advantage, fluctuation in the relative power of states,
circumstances that allow nations to parlay one conquest into
another, and circumstances that make conquest easy. According to
Van Evera, all but one of these conditions -- false optimism --
rarely occur today, but policymakers often erroneously believe in
their existence. He argues that these misperceptions are
responsible for many modern wars, and explores both World Wars, the
Korean War, and the 1967 Mideast War as test cases. Finally, he
assesses the possibility of nuclear war by applying all five
hypotheses to its potential onset
Van Evera's book demonstrates that ideas from the Realist
paradigm can offer strong explanations for international conflict
and valuable prescriptions for its control.
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