It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between
an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To
what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American
relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international
relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated
risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent
deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether
several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply
to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do
not preordain violent outcomes-nor does their absence ensure peace.
Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that
domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices
of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars
happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a "rising China" catching
up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist:
American structural advantages will endure for some time to come.
Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a
revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United
States, far from defending the international order, has frequently
undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint
for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise
in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder
challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the
United States and China.
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