Counterinsurgency remains the most challenging form of conflict
conventional forces face. Embroiled in the longest period of
sustained operations in its history, the U.S. Army maintains a
fragile peace in Iraq and faces a chronic insurgency in
Afghanistan. In much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, active
insurgent conflicts continue and potential ones abound. The United
States may become involved in some of these conflicts, either
directly or by providing aid to threatened governments.
Understanding how insurgencies may be brought to a successful
conclusion is, therefore, vital to military strategists and
policymakers. The author, Dr. Thomas Mockaitis, examines in great
detail how past insurgencies have ended and how current ones may be
resolved. Drawing upon a dozen cases over half a century, the
author identifies four ways in which insurgencies have ended.
Clearcut victories for either the government or the insurgents
occurred during the era of decolonization, but they seldom happen
today. Recent insurgencies have often degenerated into criminal
organizations committed to making money rather than fighting a
revolution, or into terrorist groups capable of nothing more than
sporadic violence. In a few cases, the threatened government has
resolved the conflict by co-opting the insurgents. After achieving
a strategic stalemate and persuading the belligerents that they
have nothing to gain from continued fighting, these governments
have drawn the insurgents into the legitimate political process
through reform and concessions. This monograph concludes that such
a co-option strategy offers the best hope of success in Afghanistan
and in future counterinsurgency campaigns.
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