The depressed status of Snake River stocks of chinook and steelhead
and the recent listings of many salmon stocks in the Columbia Basin
have led to several analytical evaluations and management advice
aimed at recovery of these stocks. These different analytical
reviews address the effectiveness of different hydrosystem options
as well as the potential for recovery through improvements that
increase survival at other life stages (e.g., habitat, harvest).
Hydrosystem options evaluated included status quo, maximizing
transportation, and the option of breaching the lower four dams on
the Snake River (also called drawdown and natural river options),
the main topic of the Lower Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration
Feasibility Report / Environmental Impact Statement (USACE). The
first review was completed by PATH (Plan for Testing and Analyzing
Hypotheses), an open forum composed of modelers, fishery biologists
and statisticians from all three states (Oregon, Washington, and
Idaho), the federal government (Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), US
Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), National Marine Fishery Service
(NMFS), Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), the treaty tribes of
the Columbia Basin (represented by the Columbia River Inter-tribal
Fish Commission -CRITFC), and the Northwest Power Planning Council
(NPPC). The PATH approach was based on a decision analysis that
showed which management actions are the most robust to remaining
uncertainties (i.e. the least risky) and allows a decision to be
made with full consideration of uncertainty and risk. PATH analyses
were followed by the NMFS effort called CRI- the Cumulative Risk
Initiative. CRI analyses explore the demographic effects of
hypothetical reductions in mortality at different life stages based
on current conditions. PATH and CRI analyses were followed by an
analytical comparison of their approaches and results completed by
a sub group of PATH composed of scientists from the states of
Oregon, Idaho, Washington, CRITFC, and the USFWS. In addition,
specific analyses have considered the potential for improvement at
certain life stages (e.g., freshwater spawning and rearing;
Petrosky et al., in press) and key uncertainties that affect the
likely effectiveness of dam breach (e.g., delayed hydrosystem
mortality; Budy et al., in review). This annex synthesizes analyses
and results PATH, NMFS CRI, and comparative and follow-up analyses
which have been completed since and are summarized here and
described in greater detail elsewhere. Although the results vary
somewhat among approaches, all available science appears to suggest
that dam breach has the greatest biological potential for
recovering Snake River salmon and steelhead.
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