Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge
political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on
U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population
with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the
current population in poverty. The government obtains around a
third of its budget revenue from sales of its limited and declining
oil stocks, which most economists state will be exhausted by 2017.
Yemen also has critical water shortages and a variety of
interrelated security problems. In Sa'ada province in Yemen's
northern mountainous region, there has been an intermittent
rebellion by Houthi tribesmen (now experiencing a cease-fire) who
accuse the government of discrimination and other actions against
their Zaydi Shi'ite religious sect. In southern Yemen, a powerful
independence movement has developed which is mostly nonviolent but
is increasingly angry and confrontational. More recently, Yemen has
emerged as one of the most important theaters for the struggle
against al-Qaeda. Yemen is among the worst places on earth to cede
to al-Qaeda in this struggle, but it is also an especially
distrustful and wary nation in its relationship with Western
nations and particularly the United States. All of these problems
are difficult to address because the central government has only
limited capacity to extend its influence into tribal areas beyond
the capital and major cities. The United States must therefore do
what it can to support peaceful resolutions of Yemen's problems
with the Houthis and Southern Movement while continuing to assist
the government's struggle against al-Qaeda forces in Yemen. It must
further pursue these policies in ways that avoid provoking a
backlash among the Yemeni population which will not tolerate
significant numbers of U.S. combat troops in Yemen.
General
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