This book is about China's economy transformation. Currently,
China's macro-leverage ratio has been effectively controlled, the
central market interest rate (one year fixed interest rate) has
gone down, and liquidity is now relatively abundant. However,
financial institutions are generally reluctant to lend, the local
governments are unwilling to act, and the fact that liquidity
released by the central bank cannot be effectively transmitted to
the real economy is leading to a contraction of credit and higher
financing costs for private enterprises. Meanwhile, the downturn in
the internal economic cycle has been exacerbated by the external
shocks caused by frictions in Sino-US trade, and this set of
circumstances has contributed to the polarization of expectations
regarding China's real economic prospects and policy trends, as
seen, for example, in the questions and discussions about policy
trends relevant to the private economy. Indeed, one might claim
that the current confusion of expectations even exceeds that of
2008, when the international financial crisis breaks out. From a
dialectical perspective, the more pessimistic expectation of
economic trend, the easier it is to build consensus on reform, and
the more remarkable actual effects of reform, which must be based
on a comprehensive understanding of the phased characteristics of
China's economic development. In this book, based on the experience
working in central bank of China, the author argues that China's
policy should focus on internal demand. In the coming period, China
needs to persevere in the market orientation, step up reform and
opening up, and create a favorable business environment. This book
represents the following opinions: First, to reach a common
understanding of the medium and high economic growth, and avoid the
dream of high growth. Second, to stick to supply-side structural
reform, accelerate economic transformation and structural
adjustment, and further unleash the reform dividends and growth
potential. The long-term and structural problems cannot be
attributed to short-term and cyclical problems. Third, the
challenges of external shocks could be also regarded as
opportunities, which include but not limited to accelerate reform
to improve property rights protection, state-owned capital
management, corporate governance, income distribution, and social
security. Fourth, whenever the trade friction happens, a
multilateral framework is always helpful.
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