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This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast
the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and
Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration
outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the
price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market
trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term
forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a
broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological
challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the
authors build and test the econometric models needed for the
forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the
conclusions they reached through applying the models to their
research. This book will be useful to students in economics,
particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and
econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in
oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant
international organizations.
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