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Anders Aslund is known to make bold predictions that initially arouse controversy but soon become common wisdom. In Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform (1989), he foresaw the collapse of the Soviet political and economic system. After Russia's financial crisis of 1998, observers declared the market economic experiment a failure, Aslund foresaw market economic success (Building Capitalism, 2002). In How Capitalism Was Built, 2nd Edition, he asks - and answers for the twenty-one countries he investigates: * Why did communism collapse? * Why did Russia not choose gradual reforms like China did? * Wherein lies the relative success of postcommunist transformation? * How did the oligarchs arise and decline vis-a-vis authoritarian leaders? Anyone who wants to understand the often confusing postcommunist dramas and obtain an early insight into the future will find this intellectually stimulating book useful. This edition includes updates to each chapter and new chapters on the impact of the global financial crisis and the European Union.
Where is Europe going? In this 2007 collection, several prominent European economists offer essays on the five big challenges to the development of the European Union (EU). Namely, the new European Constitution, European finances and the euro, the need to boost economic growth, competition in both new member states and countries further to the East, and the goal of forming a cooperative and productive relationship with countries on the European periphery. The book includes essays by Charles Wyplosz, who argues that enlargement and deepening are not substitutes but complements; Vito Tanzi who questions the Keynesian foundation of the Growth and Stability Pact; Daniel Gros, who criticises the achievements within the Lisbon Agenda, as well as essays by Anders Aslund, who claims that Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs differ little from US 'robber barons'. The final two chapters discuss the EU's European Neighbourhood Policy and long-term economic integration in Eurasia. Listed in the Economist Top 100 Books of 2007.
Where is Europe going? In this 2007 collection, several prominent European economists offer essays on the five big challenges to the development of the European Union (EU). Namely, the new European Constitution, European finances and the euro, the need to boost economic growth, competition in both new member states and countries further to the East, and the goal of forming a cooperative and productive relationship with countries on the European periphery. The book includes essays by Charles Wyplosz, who argues that enlargement and deepening are not substitutes but complements; Vito Tanzi who questions the Keynesian foundation of the Growth and Stability Pact; Daniel Gros, who criticises the achievements within the Lisbon Agenda, as well as essays by Anders Aslund, who claims that Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs differ little from US 'robber barons'. The final two chapters discuss the EU's European Neighbourhood Policy and long-term economic integration in Eurasia. Listed in the Economist Top 100 Books of 2007.
This book offers the most comprehensive empirical analysis of the economic transformation of the countries comprising the former Soviet bloc during the first decade after communism. It debunks many myths, seeing transition as a struggle between radical reformers and those thriving on rent seeking. Privatization has undoubtedly been beneficial, and its positive effects will grow over time. The main problem has been the continuation of large, unregulated and ubiquitous state apparatuses living on corruption, while no country has suffered from too radical reforms. Where malpractices of the elite can be checked, market reforms and democracy have proceeded together.
Anders Aslund is known to make bold predictions that initially arouse controversy but soon become common wisdom. In Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform (1989), he foresaw the collapse of the Soviet political and economic system. After Russia's financial crisis of 1998, observers declared the market economic experiment a failure, Aslund foresaw market economic success (Building Capitalism, 2002). In How Capitalism Was Built, 2nd Edition, he asks - and answers for the twenty-one countries he investigates: * Why did communism collapse? * Why did Russia not choose gradual reforms like China did? * Wherein lies the relative success of postcommunist transformation? * How did the oligarchs arise and decline vis-a-vis authoritarian leaders? Anyone who wants to understand the often confusing postcommunist dramas and obtain an early insight into the future will find this intellectually stimulating book useful. This edition includes updates to each chapter and new chapters on the impact of the global financial crisis and the European Union.
This book offers the most comprehensive empirical analysis of the economic transformation of the countries comprising the former Soviet bloc during the first decade after communism. It debunks many myths, seeing transition as a struggle between radical reformers and those thriving on rent seeking. Privatization has undoubtedly been beneficial, and its positive effects will grow over time. The main problem has been the continuation of large, unregulated and ubiquitous state apparatuses living on corruption, while no country has suffered from too radical reforms. Where malpractices of the elite can be checked, market reforms and democracy have proceeded together.
The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe has raised a number of questions concerning the future course of their economies. Has capitalism won or is something different emerging? Has market socialism vanished for good? How can the transitionary period be managed and what effect will it have on the standard of living in Eastern Europe? In this book, ten distinguished experts illuminate what this transition process to a market economy really means. They explore what remains of market socialism, the development of economic thinking and policy making, and distribution aspects of the Soviet economy under Perestroika.
In the wake of the Great Recession, Europe's economy has stagnated to a considerable degree-greater even than that of the United States. Forecasts suggest an abysmal annual growth rate of about one percent over the next five years, and it now appears that Europe's enviable structural features, that is, their superior social safety net, leading educational facilities, and outstanding infrastructure will be in jeopardy if higher levels of growth cannot be achieved in the mid- to long-term. Several European countries have sought to stimulate growth through monetary or fiscal means, but in the view of some economists, this focus on the demand side ignores the need to address supply issues. In Europe's Growth Challenge, Anders Aslund and Simeon Djankov show how countries in Central and Eastern Europe have recently adopted economic policies that could prove useful in expanding business and economic activity in Western and Southern Europe. These include reducing the financial role of the state, adjusting tax systems, improving the environment for startups, and easing controls over labor markets and migration policies. The Netherlands, they note, has already introduced humane pension reforms that could be adopted more broadly on the continent. The authors also outline how sectoral changes in the service market, high-tech development, and energy markets, more successfully pursued in the U.S., could profit many European countries. Authors Anders Aslund and Simeon Djankov conclude with a call for crucial continental institutional reforms at the European Commission of the European Union, the European Parliament, and the European Council of Ministers. If enacted, this bold program may be just what is needed to reinvigorate the slumping European economy.
In the coming year, Congress is likely to face a critical vote on granting Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to Russia in connection with its impending membership to the World Trade Organization (WTO). A "yes" on PNTR for Russia could set the tone for economic relations between the United States and Russia for the next decade, and would give the global agenda of trade and investment liberalization a fresh boost, as Russia is the last major economy to join the WTO. Congressional failure to permanently normalize trade relations would likely have broad consequences, since it would send a clear message of US skepticism that the WTO is a suitable forum for handling commercial relations between major powers. This study presents an analysis of the current US-Russia economic relations, provides estimates on the potential increase in US exports to Russia, and potential growth of two-way trade within the WTO framework. Drawing on conclusions from this analysis, and from previous work conducted by the Institute on US-Russia relations, this monograph summarizes the implications of PNTR for US producers, Russian economic growth, and bilateral commercial relations.
One of Europe's old nations steeped in history, Ukraine is today an undisputed independent state. It is a democracy and has transformed into a market economy with predominant private ownership. Ukraine's postcommunist transition has been one of the most protracted and socially costly, but it has taken the country to a desirable destination.Aslund's vivid account of Ukraine's journey begins with a brief background, where he discusses the implications of Ukraine's history, the awakening of society because of Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms, the early democratization, and the impact of the ill-fated Soviet economic reforms. He then turns to the reign of President Leonid Kravchuk from 1991 to 1994, the only salient achievement of which was nation-building, while the economy collapsed in the midst of hyperinflation. The first two years of Leonid Kuchma's presidency, from 1994 to 1996, were characterized by substantial achievements, notably financial stabilization and mass privatization. The period 1996-99 was a miserable period of policy stagnation, rent seeking, and continued economic decline. In 2000 hope returned to Ukraine. Viktor Yushchenko became prime minister and launched vigorous reforms to cleanse the economy from corruption, and economic growth returned. The ensuing period, 2001-04, amounted to a competitive oligarchy. It was quite pluralist, although repression increased. Economic growth was high. The year 2004 witnessed the most joyful period in Ukraine, the Orange Revolution, which represented Ukraine's democratic breakthrough, with Yushchenko as its hero. The postrevolution period, however, has been characterized by great domestic political instability; a renewed, explicit Russian threat to Ukraine's sovereignty; and a severe financial crisis. The answers to these challenges lie in how soon the European Union fully recognizes Ukraine's long-expressed identity as a European state, how swiftly Ukraine improves its malfunctioning constitutional order, and how promptly it addresses corruption.
With high growth rates in Asia, most notably in China, India, and Southeast and Central Asia, Eurasia's economic center of gravity is rapidly shifting to the East. At the same time, most of Europe faces serious barriers to growth in the long term. The volume examines the causes and consequences of this major shift in economic power and considers the options available to policymakers in various parts of Europe and Asia. The ten chapters in this book focus on long-term challenges of globalization rather than short-term problems of individual countries and explore two themes: global macroeconomic imbalances and growth. This work is based on a CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research and CASE-Ukraine conference.
Ukraine suffered unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil following Russia's annexation of Crimea in early 2014. Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies and corruption have created an imminent existential crisis for this young democracy. Yet Ukraine also has a great opportunity to break out of economic underperformance. In this study, Anders Aslund, one of the world's leading experts on Ukraine, traces Ukraine's evolution as a market economy starting with the fall of communism and examines the economic impact of its recent difficulties. Aslund argues that Ukraine must undertake sweeping political, economic, social, and government reforms to achieve prosperity and independence. For its part, the West must abandon its hesitant approach and provide broad economic assistance to help Ukraine transform itself.
The fall of communism transformed the political and economic landscape in more than two dozen countries across Europe and Asia. In this volume published on the 25th anniversary of the fall, political leaders, scholars, and policymakers assess the lessons learned from the "great rebirth" of capitalism and highlight the policies that were most successful in helping countries make the transition to stable and prosperous market economies. Also discussed in this book are examples of countries reverting to political and economic authoritarianism. The authors of these essays conclude that the best outcomes resulted from visionary leadership, a willingness to take bold steps, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and deregulation. Recent backsliding in Russia and Hungary has cast a shadow over the legacy of the transition a quarter century ago, however. This volume grew out of a two-day symposium of experts and practitioners reflecting on the past, present, and future of reform, held in Budapest, Hungary, on May 6-7, 2014.
This book deals with the financial crisis in Eastern Europe that erupted in the fall of 2008 and abated in the spring of 2010. It concentrates on the ten new eastern members of the European Union. The causes of the crisis posed no mysteries. This was a typical credit-driven boom-and-bust cycle that led to excessive current account deficits. When global liquidity dried up, the overheated East European economies faced a sudden stop of financial inflows. What is remarkable is how well these countries have steered out of the crisis. The worst hit countries-Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia-refused to devalue their currencies and instead pursued internal devaluations, successfully cutting public wages and expenditures. They swiftly turned large current account deficits into substantial surpluses and minimized their inflation. The political economy of crisis resolution has been equally striking. The public accepted significant hardship with minimal protests. Eastern Europe's fragmented proportional parliaments made it possible to quickly change governments when the incumbents fall short. Unstable coalition governments proved eminently able to pursued resolute anticrisis policies. They carried out impressive fiscal retrenchment without any public reaction against capitalism or globalization. The East European economies have come out leaner and more efficient. The International Monetary Fund stands out as the great victor on the international stage, having revived the old Washington consensus of a few rudimentary financial conditions, such as tenable exchange rate policy and reasonable fiscal and monetary policy, while it allowed well-governed countries larger public deficits during the crisis and offered much more financing. The European Commission entered into a successful partnership with the IMF, allowing the IMF to take the lead, while providing substantial financing. The great disappointment in the East European financial crisis has been the European Central Bank, which needs to reconsider its policies outside the eurozone to become more proactive.
The Russian revolution, collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia's ensuing transformation belong to the greatest dramas of our time. Revolutions are usually messy and emotional affairs, challenging much of the conventional wisdom, and Russia's experience is no exception. This book focuses on the transformation from Soviet Russia to Russia as a market economy, and explores why the country has failed to transform into a democracy. It examines the period from 1985, when Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet Union's Secretary General of the Communist Party, to the present Russia of Vladimir Putin. Aslund provides a broad overview of Russia's economic change, highlighting the most important issues and their subsequent resolutions, including Russia's inability to sort out the ruble zone during its revolution, several failed coups, and the financial crash of August 1998.
The second book from The Russia Balance Sheet Project, a collaboration of two of the world's preeminent research institutions examines Russia after the financial crisis of 2007-2009. In the aftermath of the crisis, what is Russia's current economic status and role in the world order? Furthermore, how have recent allegations of corruption within the political system affected domestic politics as well as the world's perception of Russia? To answer these questions, this book not only assesses Russia's international and domestic policy challenges, but also provides an all-encompassing review of this important country's foreign and domestic issues. The authors consider foreign policy, Russia and it neighbors, climate change, Russia's role in the world, domestic politics, and corruption. As Russia grapples with the realities of the post-crisis world, this lucid volume looks at one of the key countries in the world today and offers the keen insights of some of today's foremost experts.
Latvia stands out as the East European country hardest hit by the global financial crisis; it lost approximately 25 percent of its GDP between 2008 and 2010. It was also the most overheated economy before the crisis. But in the second half of 2010, Latvia returned to economic growth. How did this happen so quickly? Current Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis, who shepherded Latvia through the crisis, and renowned author Anders Aslund discuss why the Latvian economy became so overheated; why an IMF and European Union stabilization program was needed; what the Latvian government did to resolve the financial crisis and why it made these choices; and what the outcome has been. This book offers a rare insider's look at how a national government responded to a global financial crisis, made tough choices, and led the country back to economic growth.
Russia has been on a wild roller-coaster ride for the past three decades with no end in sight. Just in the past year as the global financial crisis deepened, the conventional perception of Russia has changed from a "safe haven" from the economic tsunami to one of the hardest hit larger markets in the world. The Russia Balance Sheet provides comprehensive, balanced, and accurate information on all key aspects of Russia's developments and their implications for the United States and other nations. The book argues that, after the strained Bush-Putin years, the Obama administration must seize the initiative to define both its policy toward Russia and the agenda for the many multilateral meetings already planned.The book offers policy prescriptions for both the United States and Russia. It is imperative that the Obama administration establish an explicit Russia policy rather than subordinating it to other issues in order to enable the administration to make necessary tradeoffs and follow up on promises. An interagency group for Russia has been created under the leadership of the National Security Council's senior director for Russia; this group should determine the Russia policy and issue an NSC directive. As a new Russia policy is crafted and an NSC directive on Russia adopted, President Obama should make a public statement on his Russia policy. Ideally, President Obama would declare his determination to finally persuade the US Congress to graduate Russia from the Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the Trade Act of 1974. As for Russia, it should accede to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to secure its successful international integration and an improvement of its legal standards. The Kremlin needs to introduce transparent procurement procedures for major investments to relieve infrastructure bottlenecks. Property rights must be reinforced and renationalization stopped to ease the problems in banking and energy production. Finally, with the first full-scale summit between Presidents Obama and Medvedev to take place in Italy in July 2009, the authors argue that the two presidents should recommit to fulfilling the April 2008 Sochi Declaration and to reestablishing a broader organized cooperation mechanism between the two countries, like that of the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission, to promote action and accountability.
Five years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a new political and economic system has evolved in Russia. Russia After Communism provides an overall assessment of what has been accomplished and what has failed to date, and where Russia is heading. In a unique collaborative effort, the book features chapters on major issues written by pairs of leading Russian and American scholars. Michael McFaul and Nikolai Petrov analyze the Russian elections since 1989 and assess voting behavior. Scott Bruckner and Lilia Shevtsova address the question of whether Russia has become a stable pluralist society. Martha Brill Olcott and Valery Tishkov focus on the nature of the Russian nation as well as regional relations. Russia has become a market economy, but what kind of capitalism is being formed? Anders slund and Mikhail Dmitriev examine the continuing challenge of economic reform. Sherman Garnett and Dmitri Trenin analyze Russia's relations with its nearest neighbor. Stephen Sestanovich examines Russia's place in the world.
A penetrating look into the extreme plutocracy Vladimir Putin has created and its implications for Russia’s future This insightful study explores how the economic system Vladimir Putin has developed in Russia works to consolidate control over the country. By appointing his close associates as heads of state enterprises and by giving control of the FSB and the judiciary to his friends from the KGB, he has enriched his business friends from Saint Petersburg with preferential government deals. Thus, Putin has created a super wealthy and loyal plutocracy that owes its existence to authoritarianism. Much of this wealth has been hidden in offshore havens in the United States and the United Kingdom, where companies with anonymous owners and black money transfers are allowed to thrive. Though beneficial to a select few, this system has left Russia’s economy in untenable stagnation, which Putin has tried to mask through military might.
Exploring the controversies and problems surrounding post-communist transitions, this innovative volume brings together a distinguished group of political scientists, economists, historians, and sociologists. Within a strong theoretical framework, the book moves between general issues of transitology and specific analyses. Hungary, a state that has weathered political and economic transition more successfully than most, is used as the volume's case study for illuminating both comparative and regional issues. By bridging the divide between area studies and comparative politics, this book will be a key resource for advanced students and for scholars in East-European/post-communist studies, comparative politics, and international relations.
The breakup of the Soviet Union and the attempted transformation of Russia into a democracy and a market economy constitute one of the most significant events of our time. A transformation could hardly be greater, yet judgments vary from failure to substantial achievement. This book clarifies that Russia has actually become a market economy. Anders slund provides the most detailed and insightful assessment to date of the Russian transformation from a socialist economy to a market economy. His account covers the period from the formation of the Russian reform government in November 1991 through the autumn of 1994. He discusses the preconditions of economic reform, the formation of a reform program, relations with other former Soviet republics, liberalization, macroeconomic stabilization, and privatization. The final chapter evaluates the transformation. As a longtime specialist on the Soviet economy and an economic adviser to the Russian government during most of this period, slund analyzes the original intentions of the government, what they were able to accomplish, and why they fell short. The book's general conclusion is that the greater the speed, consistency, and determination, the more impressive the results. The main threat to the reform process was the resistance from the state enterprise managers, who wanted to enrich themselves at the expense of the state. The reformers could only win if they acted swiftly and firmly. According to slund, the Russian transformation has not been too quick, as many maintain, but rather too slow.
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