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>This research review discusses and analyses a unique collection
of key publications at the intersection of biology and economics,
two disciplines that share a common subject: Homo sapiens.
Beginning with Thomas Malthus - whose dire predictions of mass
starvation due to population growth influenced Charles Darwin -
economists have routinely used biological arguments in their models
and methods. The review summarizes the most important of these
developments in areas such as sociobiology, evolutionary
psychology, behavioral ecology, behavioral economics and finance,
neuroeconomics, and behavioral genomics. This research review will
be an indispensable tool for economists, biologists, and
practitioners looking to develop a deeper understanding of the
limits of Homo economicus.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior
Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet
economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are
rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or
irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe--and
as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of
the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of
investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome.
In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate
with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which
rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology,
evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and
other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market
efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are
unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies
for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial
evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought--a
fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and
loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual
journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts
with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to
the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical
implications--including how hedge funds have become the Galapagos
Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and
how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to
fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential
reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is one of the most controversial
and hotly contested ideas in all the social sciences. It is
disarmingly simple to state, has far-reaching consequences for
academic pursuits and business practice, and yet is surprisingly
resilient to empirical proof of refutation. Even after three
decades of research and literally thousands of journal articles,
economists have not yet reached a consensus about whether markets -
particularly financial markets - are efficient or not. These two
volumes bring together the most influential articles surrounding
the Efficient Markets Hypothesis debate, from Paul Samuelson's
pathbreaking proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate
randomly to Fischer Black's study of noise traders, from Eugene
Fama's empirical implementation of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
to Robert Merton's analysis of stock price volatility.
How the greatest thinkers in finance changed the field and how
their wisdom can help investors today Is there an ideal portfolio
of investment assets, one that perfectly balances risk and reward?
In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio examines this question by
profiling and interviewing ten of the most prominent figures in the
finance world—Jack Bogle, Charley Ellis, Gene Fama, Marty
Leibowitz, Harry Markowitz, Bob Merton, Myron Scholes, Bill Sharpe,
Bob Shiller, and Jeremy Siegel. We learn about the personal and
intellectual journeys of these luminaries—which include six Nobel
Laureates and a trailblazer in mutual funds—and their most
innovative contributions. In the process, we come to understand how
the science of modern investing came to be. Each of these finance
greats discusses their idea of a perfect portfolio, offering
invaluable insights to today’s investors. Inspiring such monikers
as the Bond Guru, Wall Street’s Wisest Man, and the Wizard of
Wharton, these pioneers of investment management provide candid
perspectives, both expected and surprising, on a vast array of
investment topics—effective diversification, passive versus
active investment, security selection and market timing, foreign
versus domestic investments, derivative securities, nontraditional
assets, irrational investing, and so much more. While the perfect
portfolio is ultimately a moving target based on individual age and
stage in life, market conditions, and short- and long-term goals,
the fundamental principles for success remain constant. Aimed at
novice and professional investors alike, In Pursuit of the Perfect
Portfolio is a compendium of financial wisdom that no market
enthusiast will want to be without.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior
Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet
economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are
rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or
irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The
debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or
futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on
the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the
debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and
irrationality coexist-the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on
psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial
intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the
theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are
unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies
for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial
evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought-a
fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and
loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to
fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive
Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how
markets really work.
How the greatest thinkers in finance changed the field and how
their wisdom can help investors today Is there an ideal portfolio
of investment assets, one that perfectly balances risk and reward?
In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio examines this question by
profiling and interviewing ten of the most prominent figures in the
finance world-Jack Bogle, Charley Ellis, Gene Fama, Marty
Leibowitz, Harry Markowitz, Bob Merton, Myron Scholes, Bill Sharpe,
Bob Shiller, and Jeremy Siegel. We learn about the personal and
intellectual journeys of these luminaries-which include six Nobel
Laureates and a trailblazer in mutual funds-and their most
innovative contributions. In the process, we come to understand how
the science of modern investing came to be. Each of these finance
greats discusses their idea of a perfect portfolio, offering
invaluable insights to today's investors. Inspiring such monikers
as the Bond Guru, Wall Street's Wisest Man, and the Wizard of
Wharton, these pioneers of investment management provide candid
perspectives, both expected and surprising, on a vast array of
investment topics-effective diversification, passive versus active
investment, security selection and market timing, foreign versus
domestic investments, derivative securities, nontraditional assets,
irrational investing, and so much more. While the perfect portfolio
is ultimately a moving target based on individual age and stage in
life, market conditions, and short- and long-term goals, the
fundamental principles for success remain constant. Aimed at novice
and professional investors alike, In Pursuit of the Perfect
Portfolio is a compendium of financial wisdom that no market
enthusiast will want to be without.
Los economistas no se ponen de acuerdo sobre si los inversores y
los mercados son racionales y eficientes, tal y como supone la
moderna teorĂa de las finanzas, o irracionales e ineficientes, tal
y como creen los economistas del comportamiento y como sugieren las
burbujas y las crisis financieras. De cĂłmo se resuelva este debate
depende que se gestionen bien las inversiones financieras. Con este
libro Andrew W. Lo zanja esta cuestión dándole un nuevo marco
conceptual: la HipĂłtesis de los Mercados Adaptativos, en la que la
conviven racionalidad y la irracionalidad.Basándose en profundos
conocimientos de psicologĂa, biologĂa evolutiva, neurociencia e
inteligencia artificial, esta obra sostiene que la teorĂa de los
mercados eficientes no es errĂłnea sino incompleta. Cuando los
mercados son inestables, los inversores reaccionan instintivamente,
creando ineficiencias que otros pueden aprovechar. El nuevo
paradigma del autor explica cĂłmo la evoluciĂłn de las finanzas,
que ocurre a la velocidad del pensamiento, condiciona el
comportamiento de los inversores y de los mercados. Un hecho que
ponen de manifiesto los vaivenes entre estabilidad y crisis,
ganancia y pérdida, e innovación y regulación.
The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) presents a formal and
systematic exposition of a new narrative about financial markets
that reconciles rational investor behaviour with periods of
temporary financial insanity. In this narrative, intelligent but
fallible investors learn from and adapt to randomly shifting
environments. Financial markets may not always be efficient, but
they are highly competitive, innovative, and adaptive, varying in
their degree of efficiency as investor populations and the
financial landscape change over time. Andrew Lo and Ruixun Zhang
develop the mathematical foundations of the AMH—a simple yet
surprisingly powerful set of evolutionary models of behaviour—and
then apply these foundations to show how the most fundamental
economic behaviours that we take for granted can arise solely
through natural selection. Drawing on recent advances in cognitive
neuroscience and artificial intelligence, the book also explores
how our brain affects economic and financial decision making. The
AMH can be applied in many contexts, ranging from designing trading
strategies, to managing risk and understanding financial crises, to
formulating macroprudential policies to promote financial
stability. This volume is a must read for anyone who has ever been
puzzled and concerned by the behaviour of financial markets and the
implications for their personal wealth, and seeks to learn how best
to respond to such behaviour.
The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the
use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance
professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical
techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk
management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This
graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA
students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics
of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of
empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns,
tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of
securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model
and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest
rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear
financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical
fractals, and chaos theory.
Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context
of a particular financial application. This exciting new text
contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and
practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the
forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a
discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection
of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help
readers incorporate what they have read into their own
applications
An introductory finance textbook for the healthcare industry We are
living in a golden age of biomedical innovation, yet entrepreneurs
still struggle with the so-called Valley of Death when seeking
funding for their biotech start-ups. In Healthcare Finance, Andrew
Lo and Shomesh Chaudhuri show that there are better ways to finance
breakthrough therapies, and they provide the essential financial
tools and concepts for creating the next generation of healthcare
technologies. Geared for MBA and life sciences students, as well as
biopharma executives and healthcare investment professionals, this
textbook covers the theory and application of financial techniques
such as diversification, discounted cash flow analysis, real
options, Monte Carlo simulation, and securitization, all within the
context of managing biomedical assets. The book demonstrates that
more efficient funding structures can reduce financial risks, lower
the cost of capital, and bring more lifesaving therapies to
patients faster. Readers will gain the background, framework, and
techniques needed to reshape the healthcare industry in positive
ways. Finance doesn't have to be a zero-sum game, and Healthcare
Finance proves that it is possible to do well by doing good.
Explores new financing methods for the biopharma industry Provides
accessible explanations for making good business decisions in the
life sciences Analyzes real-world examples, case studies, and
practical applications Includes access to videos of lectures and
recitations, interactive figures, self-graded problem sets, and
other online content
The hedge fund industry has grown dramatically over the last two
decades, with more than eight thousand funds now controlling close
to two trillion dollars. Originally intended for the wealthy, these
private investments have now attracted a much broader following
that includes pension funds and retail investors. Because hedge
funds are largely unregulated and shrouded in secrecy, they have
developed a mystique and allure that can beguile even the most
experienced investor. In "Hedge Funds," Andrew Lo--one of the
world's most respected financial economists--addresses the pressing
need for a systematic framework for managing hedge fund
investments.
Arguing that hedge funds have very different risk and return
characteristics than traditional investments, Lo constructs new
tools for analyzing their dynamics, including measures of
illiquidity exposure and performance smoothing, linear and
nonlinear risk models that capture alternative betas, econometric
models of hedge fund failure rates, and integrated investment
processes for alternative investments. In a new chapter, he looks
at how the strategies for and regulation of hedge funds have
changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Computational finance, an exciting new cross-disciplinary
research area, draws extensively on the tools and techniques of
computer science, statistics, information systems, and financial
economics. This book covers the techniques of data mining,
knowledge discovery, genetic algorithms, neural networks,
bootstrapping, machine learning, and Monte Carlo simulation. These
methods are applied to a wide range of problems in finance,
including risk management, asset allocation, style analysis,
dynamic trading and hedging, forecasting, and option pricing. The
book is based on the sixth annual international conference
Computational Finance 1999, held at New York University's Stern
School of Business.
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