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This thesis constitutes an extraordinary innovative research
approach in transferring the concepts and methods of complex
systems to risk research. It ambitiously bridges the barriers
between theoretical, empirical and methodical research work and
integrates these fields into one comprehensive approach of dealing
with uncertainty in socio-ecological systems. The developed
agent-based simulation aims at the dynamics of social vulnerability
in the considered system of the German North Sea Coast. Thus, the
social simulation provides an analytical method to explore the
individual, relational, and spatial aspects leading to dynamics of
vulnerability in society. Combining complexity science and risk
research by the method of agent-based simulation hereby emphasizes
the importance of understanding interrelations inside the system
for the system's development, i.e. for the evolving. Based on a
vulnerability assessment regarding vulnerability characteristics,
present risk behavior and self-protection preferences of private
households against the impacts of flooding and storm surges,
possible system trajectories could be explored by means of
simulation experiments. The system-analytical approach therefore
contributes to an integrated consideration of multi-dimensional and
context-sensitv social phenomena such as vulnerability. Furthermore
it achieves conceptually and strategically relevant implications
for risk research and complex systems research.
This thesis constitutes an extraordinary innovative research
approach in transferring the concepts and methods of complex
systems to risk research. It ambitiously bridges the barriers
between theoretical, empirical and methodical research work and
integrates these fields into one comprehensive approach of dealing
with uncertainty in socio-ecological systems. The developed
agent-based simulation aims at the dynamics of social vulnerability
in the considered system of the German North Sea Coast. Thus, the
social simulation provides an analytical method to explore the
individual, relational, and spatial aspects leading to dynamics of
vulnerability in society. Combining complexity science and risk
research by the method of agent-based simulation hereby emphasizes
the importance of understanding interrelations inside the system
for the system's development, i.e. for the evolving. Based on a
vulnerability assessment regarding vulnerability characteristics,
present risk behavior and self-protection preferences of private
households against the impacts of flooding and storm surges,
possible system trajectories could be explored by means of
simulation experiments. The system-analytical approach therefore
contributes to an integrated consideration of multi-dimensional and
context-sensitv social phenomena such as vulnerability. Furthermore
it achieves conceptually and strategically relevant implications
for risk research and complex systems research.
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