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The Volatility Curse examines the conditions under which economic
voting can (and cannot) function as a mechanism of democratic
accountability, challenging existing theories that are largely
based on experiences in developed democracies. Drawing on
cross-national data from around the world and micro-level evidence
from Latin America, Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco make two
broad, related arguments. First, they show that economic voting is
pervasive around the world, but in economically volatile developing
democracies that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of
foreign capital, economic outcomes are highly contingent on
conditions beyond government control, which nonetheless determine
relevant political outcomes like elections, popular support, and
government transitions. Second, politicians are aware of these
misattribution patterns and are often able to anticipate their
electoral prospects well before elections. This reduces incumbents'
incentives to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic
voting theories, and increases the likelihood of shirking, waste,
and corruption.
The Volatility Curse examines the conditions under which economic
voting can (and cannot) function as a mechanism of democratic
accountability, challenging existing theories that are largely
based on experiences in developed democracies. Drawing on
cross-national data from around the world and micro-level evidence
from Latin America, Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco make two
broad, related arguments. First, they show that economic voting is
pervasive around the world, but in economically volatile developing
democracies that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of
foreign capital, economic outcomes are highly contingent on
conditions beyond government control, which nonetheless determine
relevant political outcomes like elections, popular support, and
government transitions. Second, politicians are aware of these
misattribution patterns and are often able to anticipate their
electoral prospects well before elections. This reduces incumbents'
incentives to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic
voting theories, and increases the likelihood of shirking, waste,
and corruption.
Conventional wisdom suggests that partisanship has little impact on
voter behavior in Brazil; what matters most is pork-barreling,
incumbent performance, and candidates' charisma. This book shows
that soon after redemocratization in the 1980s, over half of
Brazilian voters expressed either a strong affinity or antipathy
for or against a particular political party. In particular, that
the contours of positive and negative partisanship in Brazil have
mainly been shaped by how people feel about one party - the
Workers' Party (PT). Voter behavior in Brazil has largely been
structured around sentiment for or against this one party, and not
any of Brazil's many others. The authors show how the PT managed to
successfully cultivate widespread partisanship in a difficult
environment, and also explain the emergence of anti-PT attitudes.
They then reveal how positive and negative partisanship shape
voters' attitudes about politics and policy, and how they shape
their choices in the ballot booth.
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