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In the years after invading Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military
realized that it had a problem: How does a military force set the
economic conditions for security success? This problem was
certainly not novel-the military had confronted it before in such
diverse locations as Grenada, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo. The scale
and complexity of the problem, however, were unlike anything
military planners had confronted beforehand. This was especially
the case in Iraq, where some commentators expected oil production
to drive reconstruction. When the fragile state of Iraq's
infrastructure and a rapidly deteriorating security situation
prevented this from happening, the problem became even more vexing:
Should a military force focus on security first, or the economy?
How can it do both? This is the challenge of Stability Economics.
This volume on Stability Economics begins to fill the gap that
expeditionary economics did not: the operational details. What is
the theoretical relationship between economics and security? What
strategic, political, and environmental contexts do military
planners need to consider in order to write economic development
lines of effort into operations? At what point do economic
development efforts pass from being necessary to achieve the
security mission to being humanitarian aid mission creep? Stability
Economics also puts the CERP effectiveness and force structure
debates into their proper operational context. With respect to CERP
effectiveness and money as a weapon system, Stability Economics
recognizes that setting the economic conditions for security
success entails more than targeting money effectively; it also
entails a thorough appreciation of the social, political, and
geographic conditions of the fight in which a military unit is
engaged. In fact, armed with a robust theory of how economies grow
in turbulent post-conflict environments, commanders could recognize
that there are times when it is actually better to not spend money.
By broadening the theoretical aperture, Stability Economics gives
commanders and planners the perspective they need set the economic
conditions for security success. It is about more than spending
money. It is about understanding the unique characteristics of
post-conflict economies.
Rarely is it a good idea for any field of human endeavor to be
dominated by a single theory aimed at addressing a pressing
problem. However, such dominance has recently occurred in the
American approach to counterinsurgency warfare. In recent years,
driven by the perceived failures in the American war in Iraq, the
United States military, and in particular the United States Army,
has determined that when it comes to counterinsurgency, the
population-centric approach is the only way to go. The
population-centric approach dominates the Army's capstone manual on
Counterinsurgency, Field Manual 3-24, a document published in late
2006 in order to help redress shortcomings in fighting the war in
Iraq.1 The driving force behind the manual, General David Petraeus,
took the principles contained therein with him to Iraq, applied
them during the famous surge of 2007-2008, and ultimately turned
that war around. According to this popular account, the
population-centric approach had been vindicated, and it became
something of received truth about how to prosecute
counterinsurgency.
There is a flourishing and growing debate among political
scientists regarding the links between democracy/democratization
and terrorism. Most recent research on international terrorist
incidents has a global focus; Instability and Terrorism takes a
regional approach, focusing on Africa and Asia, two regions sorely
underrepresented in the literature. Cox, Falconer, and Stackhouse
will examine how democratization affects the development or
suppression of terrorism in African and Asian nations. They will
begin by defining "terrorism" and reviewing the literature on the
subject, in particular the ongoing debate about whether democracies
are more or less vulnerable to terrorism than other states. Using
statistical analysis and case studies of nations in the Horn of
Africa, elsewhere in Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, the
authors will present and interpret their findings, setting out
implications for the broader study of democratization and terrorism
in conjunction with effective international counter-terrorism
efforts.
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