On decadal time scales, climate change may result not only from man-made causes, but also from natural processes. This book brings together theoretical conceptions of the physical mechanisms of climate change with observational evidence of these changes. The following key topics are included: Observed Climatic Variability, Predictability of the Atmosphere and Oceans from Days to Decades, and Mechanisms for Decadal to Centennial Climate Variability. Further, there are specialised contributions on the role of the oceanic circulation in climate change. The authors are renowned for their pedagogical skills, and the book is primarily designed for beginners in the field, who have a background in physical science. In addition, it is an invaluable source of information for scientists seeking an overview on climate dynamics.

The ocean plays a central role in determining the climate of the earth. The oceanic circulation largely controls the temporal evolution of cli mate changes resulting from human activities such as the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and also affects the magnitude and regional distribution of those changes. On interannual and longer time scales the ocean is, through its interaction with the atmosphere, a source of important natural climate variations which we are only now beginning to recognise but whose cause has yet to be properly determined. Chem ical and biological processes in the ocean are linked to climate change, particularly through interaction with the global carbon cycle. A quantitative understanding of the oceanic role in the climate system requires models which include many complex processes and interactions, and which are systematically verified with observations. This is the ob jective of global research programs such as TOGA, WOCE, and JGOFS. Coupled numerical models of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation constitute the basis of every climate simulation. Increasingly it is recog nized that in addition a biological/chemical component is necessary to capture the pathways of carbon and other trace gases. The development of such coupled models is a challenging task which needs scientists who must be cognizant of several other disciplines beyond their own specialty."

On decadal time scales, climate change may result not only from man-made causes, but also from natural processes. This book brings together theoretical conceptions of the physical mechanisms of climate change with observational evidence of these changes. The following key topics are included: Observed Climatic Variability, Predictability of the Atmosphere and Oceans from Days to Decades, and Mechanisms for Decadal to Centennial Climate Variability. Further, there are specialised contributions on the role of the oceanic circulation in climate change. The authors are renowned for their pedagogical skills, and the book is primarily designed for beginners in the field, who have a background in physical science. In addition, it is an invaluable source of information for scientists seeking an overview on climate dynamics.

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard collection of proceedings. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughly peer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area.