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Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social
science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the
late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a
classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by
Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by
Kenneth Wachter and Herve Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the
leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the
original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable
source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep
roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
This book is intended as a relatively nontechnica1 introduction to
eurrent demographie methods. It has been several years in
preparation, beginning from occasional class handouts I wrote to
elaborate on essential points of demographie methodology. Its
growth from scattered notes to an integrated text was a natural
process, if a gradual one. The eontent of the book addresses three
objectives. first, I have tried to avoid demographie methods that
are now dated. In some ehapters, that has meant eoncentrating on
formulas most demographers recognize. In the ehap ters on life
tables, it meant testing competing formulas on a variety of real
and synthetie data se.ts, and dropping or relegating to footnotes
those that were least accurate. Second, I have attempted to give
readers a sense of the limits of different formulas and methods. I
am a terse writer, however, and for the reader that means most
sentences carry weight. Chapters should be read attentively, with
careful regard to commentary as weIl as to formulas and examples.
Finally, I have tried to make the principal methodologies of the
book accessible, by offering explanations for formulas that are not
obvious, by keeping examples to the forefront, and by placing
relatively specialized topics in ehapter appendices."
In the 50 years that have passed since Alfred Latka's death in 1949
his position as the father of mathematical demography has been
secure. With his first demographic papers in 1907 and 1911 (the
latter co authored with F. R. Sharpe) he laid the foundations for
stable population theory, and over the next decades both largely
completed it and found convenient mathematical approximations that
gave it practical applica tions. Since his time, the field has
moved in several directions he did not foresee, but in the main it
is still his. Despite Latka's stature, however, the reader still
needs to hunt through the old journals to locate his principal
works. As yet no exten sive collections of his papers are in print,
and for his part he never as sembled his contributions into a
single volume in English. He did so in French, in the two part
Theorie Analytique des Associations Biologiques (1934, 1939).
Drawing on his Elements of Physical Biology (1925) and most of his
mathematical papers, Latka offered French readers insights into his
biological thought and a concise and mathematically accessible
summary of what he called recent contributions in demographic analy
sis. We would be accurate in also calling it Latka's contributions
in demographic analysis."
Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social
science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the
late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a
classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by
Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by
Kenneth Wachter and Herve Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the
leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the
original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable
source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep
roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
This book is intended as a relatively nontechnica1 introduction to
eurrent demographie methods. It has been several years in
preparation, beginning from occasional class handouts I wrote to
elaborate on essential points of demographie methodology. Its
growth from scattered notes to an integrated text was a natural
process, if a gradual one. The eontent of the book addresses three
objectives. first, I have tried to avoid demographie methods that
are now dated. In some ehapters, that has meant eoncentrating on
formulas most demographers recognize. In the ehap ters on life
tables, it meant testing competing formulas on a variety of real
and synthetie data se.ts, and dropping or relegating to footnotes
those that were least accurate. Second, I have attempted to give
readers a sense of the limits of different formulas and methods. I
am a terse writer, however, and for the reader that means most
sentences carry weight. Chapters should be read attentively, with
careful regard to commentary as weIl as to formulas and examples.
Finally, I have tried to make the principal methodologies of the
book accessible, by offering explanations for formulas that are not
obvious, by keeping examples to the forefront, and by placing
relatively specialized topics in ehapter appendices.
In the 50 years that have passed since Alfred Latka's death in 1949
his position as the father of mathematical demography has been
secure. With his first demographic papers in 1907 and 1911 (the
latter co authored with F. R. Sharpe) he laid the foundations for
stable population theory, and over the next decades both largely
completed it and found convenient mathematical approximations that
gave it practical applica tions. Since his time, the field has
moved in several directions he did not foresee, but in the main it
is still his. Despite Latka's stature, however, the reader still
needs to hunt through the old journals to locate his principal
works. As yet no exten sive collections of his papers are in print,
and for his part he never as sembled his contributions into a
single volume in English. He did so in French, in the two part
Theorie Analytique des Associations Biologiques (1934, 1939).
Drawing on his Elements of Physical Biology (1925) and most of his
mathematical papers, Latka offered French readers insights into his
biological thought and a concise and mathematically accessible
summary of what he called recent contributions in demographic analy
sis. We would be accurate in also calling it Latka's contributions
in demographic analysis.
The security environment in the aftermath of the Cold War has been
challenging. Despite its emergence as the world's lone Superpower,
options for the US to exercise its global influence through forward
basing are becoming increasingly difficult. Major US military
installations overseas have closed for a variety of economic,
political, as well as strategic reasons. Even the US bases that
remain may at times be politically undesirable to use or
operationally restricted. Furthermore, US land-based forces are
vulnerable and virtually targets at all times for kinetic and
non-kinetic weapons. The realities of decreased access and
increased vulnerability have given new emphasis to the concept of
sea basing. This paper advocates the emerging concept and
capabilities of sea basing. As such, it builds a case to support
the claim that sea basing should be vigorously pursued. Analysis
includes discussions on what constitutes sea basing; the primary
security challenges which are driving its development; how sea
basing can effectively address these situations; possible
alternatives; and finally, recommendations on how to proceed with
sea basing. Research of the sea basing concept was conducted via a
literature review of US Navy vision documents, resent Defense
Department reports and articles in military professional journals.
While most of the literature discussed both the strengths and
limitations of sea basing, the overwhelming majority of the
documents endorsed the concept. To this end, the paper concludes
that the sea basing concept represents the key to joint operational
independence in the challenging political and security environments
of the future.
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