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This book reports our research on detection of change processes
that underlie psychophysical, learning, medical diagnosis,
military, and pro duction control situations, and share three major
features. First, the states of the process are not directly
observable but become gradually known with the sequential
acquisition of fallible information over time. Second, the
mechanism that generates the fallible information is not
stationary; rather, it is subjected to a sudden and irrevocable
change. Thirdly, in complete, probabilistic information about the
time of change is available when the process commences. The purpose
of the book is to characterize this class of detection of change
processes, to derive the optimal policy that minimizes total
expected loss, and, most importantly, to develop testable response
models, based on simple decision rules, for describing detection of
change behavior. The book is theoretical in the sense that it
offers mathematical models of multi-stage decision behavior and
solutions to optimization problems. However, it is not
anti-empirical, as it aims to stimulate new experimental research
and to generate applications. Throughout the book, questions of
experimental verification are briefly considered, and existing data
from two studies are brought to bear on the validity of the models.
The work is not complete; it only provides a starting point for
investigating how people detect a change in an uncertain
environment, balancing between the cost of delay in detecting the
change and the cost of making an incor rect terminal decision."
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