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How financial crises are inherent features of macroeconomic
dynamics There are no bigger disruptions in the functioning of
economies than financial crises. Yet prior to the crash of
2007–2008, macroeconomics incorporated financial crises simply as
bad shocks, like earthquakes, failing to consider them as an
intrinsic phenomenon of the evolution of macroeconomic variables,
such as credit, investment, and productivity. Macroeconomics and
Financial Crises rethinks how technological change, credit booms,
and endogenous information production combine to generate financial
crises as inherent and recurrent reactions to macroeconomic
dynamics. Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordoñez identify short-term
debt, collateral, and information as common elements that are
present in all financial crises. Short-term debt is a critical
element for storing value over short periods without fear of loss,
but there needs to be collateral backing the debt. Critically, the
collateral should be such that no agent wants to produce
information about its quality. The debt backed by such collateral
is information-insensitive. Gorton and Ordoñez argue that, during
a credit boom, as more and more firms get loans, the economy
reaches a tipping point where information production becomes too
tempting, disrupting short-term debt and cutting most firms out of
the credit market. Showing how a financial crisis is an information
event triggered by the dynamics of macroeconomic variables,
Macroeconomics and Financial Crises provides new perspectives on
the intricate relations between macroeconomics and financial
crises.
Financial crises are devastating in human and economic terms. To
avoid the next one, it is important to understand the recent
financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the financial eras which preceded
it. Gary Gorton has been studying financial crises since his 1983
PhD thesis, "Banking Panics." The Maze of Banking contains a
collection of his academic papers on the subjects of banks,
banking, and financial crises. The papers in this volume span
almost 175 years of U.S. banking history, from pre-U.S. Civil War
private bank notes issued during the U.S. Free Banking Era
(1837-1863); followed by the U.S. National Banking Era (1863-1914)
before there was a central bank; through loan sales,
securitization, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Banking
changed profoundly during these 175 years, yet it did not change in
fundamental ways. The forms of money changed, resulting in
associated changes in the information structure of the economy.
Bank debt evolved as an instrument for storing value, smoothing
consumption, and transactions, but its fundamental nature did not
change. In all its forms, it is vulnerable to bank runs without
government intervention. These papers provide the framework for
understanding how the financial crisis of 2007-2008 developed and
what can be done to promote a stabile banking industry and prevent
future economic crises.
If you've got money in the bank, chances are you've never seriously
worried about not being able to withdraw it. But there was a time
in the United States, an era that ended just over a hundred years
ago, when bank customers had to pay close attention to the solvency
of the banking system, knowing they might have to rush to retrieve
their savings before the bank collapsed. During the National
Banking Era (1863-1913), before the establishment of the Federal
Reserve, widespread banking panics were indeed rather common. Yet
these pre-Fed banking panics, as Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W.
Tallman show, bear striking similarities to our recent financial
crisis. Fighting Financial Crises thus turns to the past to better
understand our uncertain present, investigating how panics during
the National Banking Era played out and how they were eventually
quelled and prevented. The authors then consider the Fed's and the
SEC's reactions to the recent crisis, building an informative new
perspective on how the modern economy works.
Prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2008, economists thought that
no such crisis could or would ever happen again in the United
States, that financial events of such magnitude were a thing of the
distant past. In fact, observers of that distant past-the period
from the half century prior to the Civil War up to the passage of
deposit insurance during the Great Depression, which was marked by
repeated financial crises-note that while legislation immediately
after crises reacted to their effects, economists and policymakers
continually failed to grasp the true lessons to be learned. Gary
Gorton, considered by many to be the authority on the financial
crisis of our time, holds that economists fundamentally
misunderstand financial crises-what they are, why they occur, and
why there were none in the U.S. between 1934 and 2007. In
Misunderstanding Financial Crises, he illustrates that financial
crises are inherent to the production of bank debt, which is used
to conduct transactions, and that unless the government designs
intelligent regulation, crises will continue. Economists, he
writes, looked from a certain point of view and missed everything
that was important: the evolution of capital markets and the
banking system, the existence of new financial instruments, and the
size of certain money markets like the sale and repurchase market.
Delving into how such a massive intellectual failure could have
happened, Gorton offers a back-to-basics elucidation of financial
crises, and shows how they are not rare, idiosyncratic, unfortunate
events caused by a coincidence of unconnected factors. By looking
back to the "Quiet Period " from 1934 to 2007 when there were no
systemic crises, and to the "Panic of 2007-2008, " he brings
together such issues as bank debt and liquidity, credit booms and
manias, and moral hazard and too-big-too-fail, to illustrate the
costs of bank failure and the true causes of financial crises. He
argues that the successful regulation that prevented crises did not
adequately keep pace with innovation in the financial sector, due
in large part to economists' misunderstandings. He then looks
forward to offer both a better way for economists to conceive of
markets, as well as a description of the regulation necessary to
address the historical threat of financial crises.
Originally written for a conference of the Federal Reserve, Gary
Gorton's "The Panic of 2007" garnered enormous attention and is
considered by many to be the most convincing take on the recent
economic meltdown. Now, in Slapped by the Invisible Hand, Gorton
builds upon this seminal work, explaining how the
securitized-banking system, the nexus of financial markets and
instruments unknown to most people, stands at the heart of the
financial crisis.
Gorton shows that the Panic of 2007 was not so different from the
Panics of 1907 or of 1893, except that, in 2007, most people had
never heard of the markets that were involved, didn't know how they
worked, or what their purposes were. Terms like subprime mortgage,
asset-backed commercial paper conduit, structured investment
vehicle, credit derivative, securitization, or repo market were
meaningless. In this superb volume, Gorton makes all of this
crystal clear. He shows that the securitized banking system is, in
fact, a real banking system, allowing institutional investors and
firms to make enormous, short-term deposits. But as any banking
system, it was vulnerable to a panic. Indeed the events starting in
August 2007 can best be understood not as a retail panic involving
individuals, but as a wholesale panic involving institutions, where
large financial firms "ran" on other financial firms, making the
system insolvent.
An authority on banking panics, Gorton is the ideal person to
explain the financial calamity of 2007. Indeed, as the crisis
unfolded, he was working inside an institution that played a
central role in the collapse. Thus, this book presents the
unparalleled and invaluable perspective of a top scholar who was
also a key insider.
If you’ve got some money in the bank, chances are you’ve never
seriously worried about not being able to withdraw it. But there
was a time in the United States, an era that ended just over a
hundred years ago, in which bank customers had to pay close
attention to whether the banking system would remain solvent,
knowing they might have to rush to retrieve their savings before
the bank collapsed. During the National Banking Era (1863–1914),
before the establishment of the Federal Reserve, widespread banking
panics were indeed rather common. Yet these pre-Fed banking panics,
as Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman show, bear striking
similarities to our recent financial crisis. In both cases,
something happened to make depositors—whether individual
customers or corporate investors—“act differently” and find
reason to question the value of their bank debt. Fighting Financial
Crises thus turns to the past for a fuller understanding of our
uncertain present, investigating how panics during the National
Banking Era played out and how they were eventually quelled and
prevented. Gorton and Tallman open with a survey of the period’s
“information environment,” tracing the development of national
bank notes, checks, and clearing houses to show how the key to
keeping order was to disseminate information very carefully.
Identifying the most effective responses based on the framework of
the National Banking Era, they then consider the Fed’s and the
SEC’s reactions to the recent crisis, building an informative new
perspective on how the modern economy works.
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