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This monograph grew out of a project which was sponsored by the
Swiss National Foundation ("Schweizerischer Nationalfonds") under
grant no. 4. 636-0. 83. 09. Yithin this project,
prediction-oriented estimation methods for the canonical
econometric disequilibrium model were developed. The present
monograph deals with the application of these estimation techniques
to three aggregative markets of the Swiss economy. Parts of the
monograph have been presented at various places: the estimation
techniques described in chapter 3 at the European Meeting of the
Econometric Society, Madrid 1984; the application to residential
investment described in chapter 4 at a symposium on housing policy
at the University of Mannheim, 1984; the empirical study on the
money stock described in chapter 5 at the Symposium on Money,
Banking and Insurance held at the University of Karlsruhe, 1984, as
well as at a joint seminar of the University of Basle and the Bank
for International Settlements (BIS), 1985; and, finally, the
empirical study on the aggregate labor market described in chapter
6 at a seminar of the University of ZUrich, 1985. Comments from toe
seminar participants, in particular from Palle S. Andersen (BIS)
who served as a discussant, Pascal Bridel (Swiss National Bank,
SNB), Franz Ettlin (SNB), and Kurt Schiltknecht (Nordfinanz-Bank,
Zurich) are gratefully acknowledged, without implying any
responsibility on their part. The methodological part described in
chapters 2 and 3 is contributed by G. Frei and B.
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