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This survey of portfolio theory, from its modern origins through
more sophisticated, "postmodern" incarnations, evaluates portfolio
risk according to the first four moments of any statistical
distribution: mean, variance, skewness, and excess kurtosis. In
pursuit of financial models that more accurately describe abnormal
markets and investor psychology, this book bifurcates beta on
either side of mean returns. It then evaluates this traditional
risk measure according to its relative volatility and correlation
components. After specifying a four-moment capital asset pricing
model, this book devotes special attention to measures of market
risk in global banking regulation. Despite the deficiencies of
modern portfolio theory, contemporary finance continues to rest on
mean-variance optimization and the two-moment capital asset pricing
model. The term postmodern portfolio theory captures many of the
advances in financial learning since the original articulation of
modern portfolio theory. A comprehensive approach to financial risk
management must address all aspects of portfolio theory, from the
beautiful symmetries of modern portfolio theory to the disturbing
behavioral insights and the vastly expanded mathematical arsenal of
the postmodern critique. Mastery of postmodern portfolio theory's
quantitative tools and behavioral insights holds the key to the
efficient frontier of risk management.
This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to
the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial
economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the
identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral
departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance,
and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the
rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios
are imbued with "affect." Positive and negative emotions warp
investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes
in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy
of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs
according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle
theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity
premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has
questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis.
Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of
security, potential, and aspiration.
This book rehabilitates beta as a definition of systemic risk by
using particle physics to evaluate discrete components of financial
risk. Much of the frustration with beta stems from the failure to
disaggregate its discrete components; conventional beta is often
treated as if it were "atomic" in the original Greek sense: uncut
and indivisible. By analogy to the Standard Model of particle
physics theory's three generations of matter and the three-way
interaction of quarks, Chen divides beta as the fundamental unit of
systemic financial risk into three matching pairs of "baryonic"
components. The resulting econophysics of beta explains no fewer
than three of the most significant anomalies and puzzles in
mathematical finance. Moreover, the model's three-way analysis of
systemic risk connects the mechanics of mathematical finance with
phenomena usually attributed to behavioral influences on capital
markets. Adding consideration of volatility and correlation, and of
the distinct cash flow and discount rate components of systematic
risk, harmonizes mathematical finance with labor markets, human
capital, and macroeconomics.
This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to
the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial
economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the
identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral
departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance,
and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the
rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios
are imbued with "affect." Positive and negative emotions warp
investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes
in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy
of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs
according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle
theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity
premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has
questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis.
Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of
security, potential, and aspiration.
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