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This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the
"crowd out" problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian
economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs.
It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically
"accommodative monetary policy." They were not used to any great
extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing
the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of
their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove
this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It
examines how effectively the Federal Reserve's anti-crowd out
programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken
at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and
savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing
accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their
effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal
Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing
Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests
on the US economy to prove these assertions.
This book scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative
monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem, allowing
fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government
spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. It also tests to
see if natural growth in th economy can cure the crowd out problem
as well or better. The book is intended to be the largest scale
scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800
separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different
parts or all of the period 1960 - 2010. These tests focus on
whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of
loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem as well as
natural growth in the economy. The book, employing the best
scientific methods available to economists for this type of
problem, concludes accommodate monetary policy could have, but
until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to
accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to
offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year's crowd out problem.
That provides the science part of the answer as to why
accommodative monetary policy didn't accommodate: too little of it
was tried. The book also tests whether other increases in loanable
funds, occurring because of natural growth in the economy or
changes in the savings rate can also offset crowd out. It concludes
they can, and that these changes tend to be several times as
effective as accommodative monetary policy. This book's companion
volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail explores the policy
implications of these results.
This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the
"crowd out" problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian
economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs.
It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically
"accommodative monetary policy." They were not used to any great
extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing
the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of
their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove
this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It
examines how effectively the Federal Reserve's anti-crowd out
programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken
at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and
savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing
accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their
effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal
Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing
Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests
on the US economy to prove these assertions.
This book scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative
monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem, allowing
fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government
spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. It also tests to
see if natural growth in th economy can cure the crowd out problem
as well or better. The book is intended to be the largest scale
scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800
separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different
parts or all of the period 1960 - 2010. These tests focus on
whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of
loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem as well as
natural growth in the economy. The book, employing the best
scientific methods available to economists for this type of
problem, concludes accommodate monetary policy could have, but
until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to
accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to
offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year's crowd out problem.
That provides the science part of the answer as to why
accommodative monetary policy didn't accommodate: too little of it
was tried. The book also tests whether other increases in loanable
funds, occurring because of natural growth in the economy or
changes in the savings rate can also offset crowd out. It concludes
they can, and that these changes tend to be several times as
effective as accommodative monetary policy. This book's companion
volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail explores the policy
implications of these results.
This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more
Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has
substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost
exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the
Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved
methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy
so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their
decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing
determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and
government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to
construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim
then tests across four different time periods to ensure that
results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the
value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that
the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and
DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future
macroeconomic studies.
This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government
stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using
the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228
separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different
stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive
results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation,
starting with one time period and then retesting in three
additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when
favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through
government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely
to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as
it stimulates in the public sector.
This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more
Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has
substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost
exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the
Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved
methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy
so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their
decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing
determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and
government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to
construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim
then tests across four different time periods to ensure that
results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the
value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that
the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and
DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future
macroeconomic studies.
This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government
stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using
the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228
separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different
stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive
results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation,
starting with one time period and then retesting in three
additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when
favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through
government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely
to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as
it stimulates in the public sector.
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