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Preventative war has a long history in international politics, but
until it became an instrumental part of the 'Bush Doctrine', it was
mostly overlooked. We know that there have been preventative wars
throughout history, but the motivations behind them have remained
elusive. Because of the relatively little attention focused on
preventative action, there are many crucial questions that remain
unanswered. What exactly constitutes preventative action? What
differentiates preventative action from pre-emptive action? Are
there significant differences between preventative strikes and
full-on preventative wars? What is the relationship of preventive
action to traditional concepts of deterrence, compellence, and
international law? Finally, and most important, why do states
initiate preventative action? Ultimately, the best avenue for
understanding decisions to initiate preventative action is through
a close examination of the individual leader responsible for such
decisions. The theory of preventative action presented in this book
is based upon the beliefs, values, and perceptions of leaders.
Israel's strike on Iraq's nuclear reactor, 1981; American
preventive war planning, 1946-1954; Indian preventative war
planning, 1982-2002; and America's war against Iraq, 2003. In each
instance, preventative action was seriously considered, and yet it
only occurred in three of the five cases. In the end, each case
provides further evidence that individual leadership matters, and
nowhere more so than in decisions involving preventative war.
Political scientists designing experiments often face the question
of how abstract or detailed their experimental stimuli should be.
Typically, this question is framed in terms of tradeoffs relating
to experimental control and generalizability: the more context
introduced into studies, the less control, and the more difficulty
generalizing the results. Yet, we have reason to question this
tradeoff, and there is relatively little systematic evidence to
rely on when calibrating the degree of abstraction in studies. We
make two contributions. First, we provide a theoretical framework
which identifies and considers the consequences of three dimensions
of abstraction in experimental design: situational hypotheticality,
actor identity, and contextual detail. Second, we field a range of
survey experiments, varying these levels of abstraction. We find
that situational hypotheticality does not substantively change
experimental results, but increased contextual detail dampens
treatment effects and the salience of actor identities moderates
results in specific situations.
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