Conflicts over currency valuations are a recurrent feature of the modern global economy. To strengthen their international competitiveness, many countries resort to buying foreign currencies to make their exports cheaper and their imports more expensive. In the first decade of the 21st century, for example, China's currency manipulation practices were so flagrant that they produced a backlash in the United States and other trading partners, prompting threats of retaliation. How damaging is the practice of currency manipulation-and how extensive is the problem? This book by C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon-two leading experts on trade, investment, and the effects of currency manipulation-traces the history, causes, and effects of currency manipulation and analyzes a range of policy responses that the United States could adopt. The book is an indispensable guide to a complex and serious problem and what might be done to solve it.

This paper examines the available data that may shed light on the carry trade in Japanese yen. We define an individual or a sector to be engaged in the carry trade if it has a short position in yen and a long position in other currencies. The tendency of large yen movements to be skewed toward appreciations is consistent with the existence of substantial carry positions, and other evidence from market prices provides some modest support for an effect from the carry trade. Data on bank loans and bond holdings by currency reveal a large apparent yen carry position of the Japanese official sector and modest carry positions in the Japanese and foreign banking sectors. The Japanese private non-banking sector has a large long foreign-currency position, but does not have a short yen position, and is thus not engaged in the yen carry trade in the aggregate. However, it is possible that exporters and investors in Japan use the derivatives markets to hedge some of their long foreign-currency exposure, with the private non-banking sector outside of Japan (including most hedge funds) likely to be taking on most of the associated carry exposure.

Fast-growing countries tend to experience rapid export growth with little secular change in their terms of trade. This contradicts most international macroeconomic models, which predict that productivity and labor supply shocks can affect exports only through changes in the terms of trade. This paper generalizes the monopolistic competition trade model of Helpman and Krugman (1985), providing a basis for growth-led exports without declining terms of trade. The key mechanism behind this result is that fast-growing countries are able to develop new varieties of products that can be exported without pushing down the prices of existing products. There is strong support for the new model in long-run export growth of many countries in the post-war era. These results have major implications for the analysis of supply shocks in international macroeconomic models.

During the 1990s the United Kingdom experienced large and sudden exchange rate movements that had no apparent impact on overall consumer prices. This paper shows that the stability of U.K. consumer prices was made possible in part by offsetting movements in the price-cost margins of foreign exporters and in part by offsetting price-cost margins in the U.K. distribution sector. At the same time, U.K. manufacturers experienced margin swings in the opposite direction, largely due to their role as exporters. Thus, sterling depreciation boosted the profits of U.K. manufacturers and squeezed the profits of U.K. distributors, while sterling appreciation had the opposite effects.