Originally published in 1983, this book examines the problems of fertility in predicting population trends. It varies a great deal according to mothers’ ages, ethnic groups, place and time. It is important for demographers, planners and policy-makers to know precisely what fertility differences are, what gives rise to them and how they can be handled and predicted statistically. This volume discusses these challenges in detail and analyses information to show how factors like religion, place of birth and socio-economic grouping affect fertility. .

Everywhere in the world, populations of largely European origin are currently exeriencing not only their lowest-ever fertility levels, but what seem likely to be their longest-ever period of fertility at below-replacement levels. Although it is widely assumed that the fertiliy of these countries will return to replacement levels within 30 to 35 years, there is at present no empirical evidence that this will happen. The inevitable demographic results of this fertility pattern are an older age structure and a decline in numbers. Many see this as leading to labour shortages and wage inflation; even to weakened national defence and the disappearance of European peoples and culture. But while they are inevitable in today's low birth-rate populations, numerical declines and older age structures are unlikely to be either as great or as disruptive as commonly anticipated. Moreover, the policies proposed to avoid such demographic developments are clearly unsuitable. The inevitability of these changes - new in human history - must be accepted before societies can adjust to them and realize the benefits that are inherent in them.

First Published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor and Francis, an informa company.