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Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM) Theory states that a lightly
perturbed, conservative, dynamical system will exhibit lasting
quasi-periodic motion on an invariant torus. Its application to
purely deterministic orbits has revealed exquisite accuracy limited
only by machine precision. The theory is extended with new
mathematical techniques for determining and predicting stochastic
orbits for Earth satellite systems. The linearized equations of
motion are developed and a least squares estimating environment is
pioneered to fit observation data from the International Space
Station to a phase space trajectory that exhibits drifting toroidal
motion over a dense continuum of adjacent tori. The dynamics near
the reference torus can be modeled with time-varying torus
parameters that preserve both deterministic and stochastic effects.
These parameters were shown to predict orbits for days into the
future without tracking updates--a vast improvement over classical
methods of orbit propagation that require routine updates.
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