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In Mathematical Finance, the authors consider a mathematical model
for the pricing of emissions permits. The model has particular
applicability to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU
ETS) but could also be used to consider the modeling of other
cap-and-trade schemes. As a response to the risk of Climate Change,
carbon markets are currently being implemented in regions worldwide
and already represent more than $30 billion. However, scientific,
and particularly mathematical, studies of these carbon markets are
needed in order to expose their advantages and shortcomings, as
well as allow their most efficient implementation. This Brief
reviews mathematical properties such as the existence and
uniqueness of solutions for the pricing problem, stability of
solutions and their behavior. These fit into the theory of fully
coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs)
with irregular coefficients. The authors present a numerical
algorithm to compute the solution to these non-standard FBSDEs.
They also carry out a case study of the UK energy market. This
involves estimating the parameters to be used in the model using
historical data and then solving a pricing problem using the
aforementioned numerical algorithm. The Brief is of interest to
researchers in stochastic processes and their applications, and
environmental and energy economics. Most sections are also
accessible to practitioners in the energy sector and climate change
policy-makers.
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