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In this work, Patrick Kelley interprets the intelligence
environment of political, military and information empires. His
contribution sheds light on the cause of enduring intelligence
collection defi cits that affl ict the center of such empires, and
that can coincide with their ebb and fl ow. Alert intelligence
practitioners, present and future, can note here just how useful a
fresh interpretation of the intelligence enterprise can be to a
coherent understanding of the global stream of worrisome issues. Th
e long-term value of this work will be realized as readers
entertain the implications of Churchill's comment that "The empires
of the future are the empires of the mind."
The Intelligence Science Board was chartered in August 2002 and
advises the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and
senior Intelligence Community leaders on emerging scientific and
technical issues of special importance to the Intelligence
Community. The mission of the Board is to provide the Intelligence
Community with outside expert advice and unconventional thinking,
early notice of advances in science and technology, insight into
new applications of existing technology, and special studies that
require skills or organizational approaches not resident within the
Intelligence Community. "Educing information" refers to information
elicitation and strategic debriefing as well as to interrogation.
Educing Information is a profoundly important book because it
offers both professionals and ordinary citizens a primer on the
"science and art" of both interrogation and intelligence gathering.
It concludes with an annotated bibliography.
How people notice and make sense of phenomena are core issues in
assessing intelligence successes and failures. Members of the U.S.
Intelligence Community (IC) became adept at responding to certain
sets of phenomena and "analyzing" their significance (not always
correctly) during the Cold War. The paradigm was one of "hard,
formalized and centralized processes, involving planned searches,
scrupulously sticking with a cycle of gathering, analyzing,
estimating and disseminating supposed enriched information." The
paradigm did not stop within the IC, either. As Pierre Baumard
notes, it was also imported, unchanged, by corporations. However,
the range of phenomena noticed by intelligence professionals has
broadened from a focus on largely static issues to encompass highly
dynamic topics over the two decades since the end of the Cold War.
Intelligence professionals are challenged to stay abreast. A
growing professional literature by intelligence practitioners
discusses these trends and their implications for advising and
warning policymakers. Th e literature by practitioners embodies a
trust that national intelligence producers can overcome the
"inherent" enemies of intelligence to prevent strategic
intelligence failure. Th e disparity between this approach and
accepting the inevitability of intelligence failure has grown sharp
enough to warrant the identification of separate camps or schools
of "skeptics" and "meliorists." As a leading skeptic, Richard Betts
charitably plants the hopeful note that in ambiguous situations,
"the intelligence officer may perform most usefully by not offering
the answer sought by authorities but by forcing questions on them,
acting as a Socratic agnostic." However, he completes this thought
by declaring, fatalistically, that most leaders will neither
appreciate nor accept this approach. Robert Jervis resurrects a
colorful quote from former President Lyndon Johnson, who epitomized
the skeptical policymaker: Let me tell you about these intelligence
guys. When I was growing up in Texas we had a cow named Bessie. I'd
go out early and milk her. I'd get her in the stanchion, seat
myself and squeeze out a pail of fresh milk. One day I'd worked
hard and gotten a full pail of milk, but I wasn't paying attention,
and old Bessie swung her shit smeared tail through the bucket of
milk. Now, you know that's what these intelligence guys do. You
work hard and get a good program or policy going, and they swing a
shit-smeared tail through it. Jervis asserts that policymakers and
decision makers "need confidence and political support, and honest
intelligence unfortunately oft en diminishes rather than increases
these goods by pointing to ambiguities, uncertainties, and the
costs and risks of policies." The antagonism is exacerbated when
policy is revealed to be fl awed and to have ignored intelligence
knowledge. For example, in the case of the Bush administration's
handling of the Iraq War, intelligence challenges to policy were
seen as "being disloyal and furthering its own agenda." Jervis adds
that the Bush administration is only the most recent one to exhibit
such behavior. He finds that the administrations of Presidents
Clinton, Johnson, Kennedy, and Eisenhower also browbeat and ignored
intelligence.
The book aims to educate officials as well as students about the
vicissitudes that accompany the development and execution of the
government intelligence function. The authors demonstrate that
national, strategic intelligence in any country of the Hemisphere
can experience episodes of devolution as well as positive
evolution, at the same time that the culturally modulated practices
of government professionals can oscillate between periods of
repression and democratic observance.
Frank Oliveira explores the Brazilian crucible for Walter's career
among the heavyweights of twentieth-century, front-line, U.S.
international policy implementation. Walters' role as intelligence
statesman clearly and early transcended his military roots and
established a strong precedent for the instrumental unification of
political strategy and intelligence in foreign affairs.
In this work, Patrick Kelley interprets the intelligence
environment of political, military and information empires. His
contribution sheds light on the cause of enduring intelligence
collection deficits that afflict the center of such empires, and
that can coincide with their ebb and flow. Alert intelligence
practitioners, present and future, can note here just how useful a
fresh interpretation of the intelligence enterprise can be to a
coherent understanding of the global stream of worrisome issues.
The long-term value of this work will be realized as readers
entertain the implications of Churchill's comment that "The empires
of the future are the empires of the mind.
The first essays lay out some of the intelligence techniques that
have proven effective in either Law Enforcement (LE) or the
Intelligence Community (IC) and that might be useful to exchange
and apply. They are followed by essays that point out some of the
difficulties inherent in integrating the two communities. We
conclude with a few abstracts of recent work done at the National
Defense Intelligence College on other aspects of this topic. The
bibliography is a compilation of key sources from the authors'
works but is by no means exhaustive.
Sensemaking is the inaugural book in our new series, titled The A.
Denis Clift Series on the Intelligence Profession. The Clift Series
will present original research on intelligence analysis and the
teaching of intelligence. Sensemaking, whereby intelligence
professionals would work with executive decisionmakers to explain
data that are "sparse, noisy, and uncertain,"requires an
interpreter and experienced champion to bring about a practicable
understanding and acceptance of the concept among intelligence
practitioners. David Moore has accomplished that feat. Further, he,
along with collaborators in chapters 5 and 7, demonstrate how
sensemaking can be accomplished as a collaborative enterprise.
Frank Oliveira explores the Brazilian crucible for Walter's career
among the heavyweights of twentieth-century, front-line, U.S.
international policy implementation. Walters' role as intelligence
statesman clearly and early transcended his military roots and
established a strong precedent for the instrumental unification of
political strategy and intelligence in foreign affairs.
Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although
technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting
data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do
analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching,
reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound,
intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework
and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence
analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to
improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the
context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the
entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of
intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces
how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
The Intelligence Science Board was chartered in August 2002 and
advises the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and
senior Intelligence Community leaders on emerging scientific and
technical issues of special importance to the Intelligence
Community. The mission of the Board is to provide the Intelligence
Community with outside expert advice and unconventional thinking,
early notice of advances in science and technology, insight into
new applications of existing technology, and special studies that
require skills or organizational approaches not resident within the
Intelligence Community. "Educing information" refers to information
elicitation and strategic debriefing as well as to interrogation.
Educing Information is a profoundly important book because it
offers both professionals and ordinary citizens a primer on the
"science and art" of both interrogation and intelligence gathering.
It concludes with an annotated bibliography.
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