Since the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics, the subject has evolved in a major way, adopting the principles behind the revolution and building on them in spectacular fashion. In this thoroughly revised and updated second edition, the authors provide a complete and up-to-date textbook designed to guide students through the mathematical and conceptual maze of modern macroeconomics. The updated second edition includes: Explanation of the historical development of the subject Introduction to traditional macro-classical/adaptive expectations Demonstration of how rational expectations are handled in macro models and in finance An explanation of the importance of structural, micro-founded models Key examples of structural models examined in detail, and with extension to the open economy Discussion of policy implications throughout Methodology for testing models against macro data behaviour, complete with the latest evidence on these models' success Coverage of key topics, including the supply-side, unemployment, growth and the open economy. By explaining the basics of each topic, and providing the solid grounding for students to tackle more complex and detailed material, this textbook will be an invaluable resource for both postgraduate and upper level undergraduate students of macroeconomics alike.

This timely book sets out a shrewd and comprehensive policy programme, for both 'microeconomic' supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and 'macroeconomic' policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda. Explaining the numerous benefits of free trade after Britain's exit from the EU, and challenging the anti-Brexit argument, Patrick Minford builds on his extensive research into economic modelling to quantify the effects of Brexit and propose policies for the aftermath. Laying out an agenda for replacing social interventionist EU regulation with a robust free market framework, Minford proposes a radical tax reform programme to broaden the tax base and flatten marginal rates. This incisive book looks to the future of the UK beyond Brexit, addressing the effects of coronavirus and proposing an avenue of policies for recovery. Featuring key empirical analysis and insightful arguments, this book will be crucial reading for economists and policymakers investigating and overseeing the future of UK economic policy. It will also benefit scholars of economics and political economy, particularly those interested in tax reform programmes.

This timely book sets out a shrewd and comprehensive policy programme, for both 'microeconomic' supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and 'macroeconomic' policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda. Explaining the numerous benefits of free trade after Britain's exit from the EU, and challenging the anti-Brexit argument, Patrick Minford builds on his extensive research into economic modelling to quantify the effects of Brexit and propose policies for the aftermath. Laying out an agenda for replacing social interventionist EU regulation with a robust free market framework, Minford proposes a radical tax reform programme to broaden the tax base and flatten marginal rates. This incisive book looks to the future of the UK beyond Brexit, addressing the effects of coronavirus and proposing an avenue of policies for recovery. Featuring key empirical analysis and insightful arguments, this book will be crucial reading for economists and policymakers investigating and overseeing the future of UK economic policy. It will also benefit scholars of economics and political economy, particularly those interested in tax reform programmes.

Since the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics, the subject has evolved in a major way, adopting the principles behind the revolution and building on them in spectacular fashion. In this thoroughly revised and updated second edition, the authors provide a complete and up-to-date textbook designed to guide students through the mathematical and conceptual maze of modern macroeconomics. The updated second edition includes: Explanation of the historical development of the subject Introduction to traditional macro-classical/adaptive expectations Demonstration of how rational expectations are handled in macro models and in finance An explanation of the importance of structural, micro-founded models Key examples of structural models examined in detail, and with extension to the open economy Discussion of policy implications throughout Methodology for testing models against macro data behaviour, complete with the latest evidence on these models' success Coverage of key topics, including the supply-side, unemployment, growth and the open economy. By explaining the basics of each topic, and providing the solid grounding for students to tackle more complex and detailed material, this textbook will be an invaluable resource for both postgraduate and upper level undergraduate students of macroeconomics alike.

The policy framework advocated by Minford et al. . . . is grounded in economic theory and an incisive empirical analysis of the costs of UK's membership of the EU. Their thesis that the EU is a political union practising economic protectionism in the guise of gradualism towards free trade makes sense. . . . Minford and his associates' analysis suggests that the EU's policy framework of free trade for members but restrictions on trade of non-members with the EU countries is a second best policy adopted to promote political rather than economic objectives.' - V.N. Balasubramanyam, Lancaster University, UK'The EU got the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2012, but such an award is not forthcoming for economics. In fact, the EU faces a stern public discontent throughout Europe. For years EU leaders have been unable to agree on almost anything. The eurozone's toxic monetary embrace is a colossal failure that has provoked misery in most of the participating countries and, worst of all, suffocated the hopes of prosperity for many years to come. The EU is no longer a venture that inspires people to run on barricades to defend it. Should Britain be a part of the crumbling EU project? This book provides a timely and documented answer. It is highly recommended reading.' - Miroslav N. Jovanovi , University of Geneva, Switzerland 'Much too much of the debate about the UK's relationship with the European Union relies upon general declarations unsupported by facts and assertions and claims not substantiated by evidence. This is why we need so badly the careful quantitative analysis provided by Patrick Minford and his colleagues. The UK electorate will have a momentous decision to take when the EU referendum takes place. History and emotions will be important, but getting the facts straight is even more vital.' - John Mills, Founder and Chairman of JML and Co-Chairman of Business for Britain 'Patrick Minford and his team have performed a hugely valuable service by quantifying the costs of Britain's EU membership. In particular, they show that Britain pays too much for too high a proportion of its imports. The EU's protectionism in its trade with the rest of the world costs Britain a significant slice of its national output. Their demonstration of this vital point is thought-provoking and sophisticated, and greatly strengthens the case for the UK to leave the EU.' - Tim Congdon, CBE, International Monetary Research Ltd Placed in the context of the upcoming referendum, this second edition brings up to date a thorough review of all economic aspects of the UK's membership of the EU. It notes the intention of the EU to move to 'ever closer union' and the nature of the regulatory and general economic philosophy of its dominant members, whose position is enforced by qualified majority voting. The book highlights the UK s dilemma that, while extending free markets to its local region is attractive, this European philosophy and closer union are substantially at odds with the UK's traditions of free markets and freedom under the common law. This comprehensive examination of the economic costs and benefits of membership uses state-of-the-art modeling methods and includes estimates of its net costs as a percentage of GDP. The book explains how the decision to leave would follow from a judgement on the political economy of the EU as compared with that of the UK. It details the misconceptions involved in much of the debate about trade with the EU, and argues that the key issue is not access to markets but rather the prices at which trade takes place. Covered in careful detail is the economics of the UK's trade with the EU in the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

The policy framework advocated by Minford et al. . . . is grounded in economic theory and an incisive empirical analysis of the costs of UK's membership of the EU. Their thesis that the EU is a political union practising economic protectionism in the guise of gradualism towards free trade makes sense. . . . Minford and his associates' analysis suggests that the EU's policy framework of free trade for members but restrictions on trade of non-members with the EU countries is a second best policy adopted to promote political rather than economic objectives.' - V.N. Balasubramanyam, Lancaster University, UK'The EU got the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2012, but such an award is not forthcoming for economics. In fact, the EU faces a stern public discontent throughout Europe. For years EU leaders have been unable to agree on almost anything. The eurozone's toxic monetary embrace is a colossal failure that has provoked misery in most of the participating countries and, worst of all, suffocated the hopes of prosperity for many years to come. The EU is no longer a venture that inspires people to run on barricades to defend it. Should Britain be a part of the crumbling EU project? This book provides a timely and documented answer. It is highly recommended reading.' - Miroslav N. Jovanovi , University of Geneva, Switzerland 'Much too much of the debate about the UK's relationship with the European Union relies upon general declarations unsupported by facts and assertions and claims not substantiated by evidence. This is why we need so badly the careful quantitative analysis provided by Patrick Minford and his colleagues. The UK electorate will have a momentous decision to take when the EU referendum takes place. History and emotions will be important, but getting the facts straight is even more vital.' - John Mills, Founder and Chairman of JML and Co-Chairman of Business for Britain 'Patrick Minford and his team have performed a hugely valuable service by quantifying the costs of Britain's EU membership. In particular, they show that Britain pays too much for too high a proportion of its imports. The EU's protectionism in its trade with the rest of the world costs Britain a significant slice of its national output. Their demonstration of this vital point is thought-provoking and sophisticated, and greatly strengthens the case for the UK to leave the EU.' - Tim Congdon, CBE, International Monetary Research Ltd Placed in the context of the upcoming referendum, this second edition brings up to date a thorough review of all economic aspects of the UK's membership of the EU. It notes the intention of the EU to move to 'ever closer union' and the nature of the regulatory and general economic philosophy of its dominant members, whose position is enforced by qualified majority voting. The book highlights the UK s dilemma that, while extending free markets to its local region is attractive, this European philosophy and closer union are substantially at odds with the UK's traditions of free markets and freedom under the common law. This comprehensive examination of the economic costs and benefits of membership uses state-of-the-art modeling methods and includes estimates of its net costs as a percentage of GDP. The book explains how the decision to leave would follow from a judgement on the political economy of the EU as compared with that of the UK. It details the misconceptions involved in much of the debate about trade with the EU, and argues that the key issue is not access to markets but rather the prices at which trade takes place. Covered in careful detail is the economics of the UK's trade with the EU in the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

As a tribute to the exceptional contributions of Alan Walters to monetary theory and policy, this book draws together a distinguished cast of international contributors to write about money. In a series of essays they review controversies in monetary economics and debate current policy issues.Combining theoretical analysis with policy evaluation, this book touches on a whole spectrum of issues ranging from monetary union and exchange rate regimes, to credit rationing and policy games. The book focuses on the problems of modelling the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, and setting optimal policies for the future. It concludes with two stimulating panel discussions, one questioning whether the UK should join the Euro and the other discussing the appropriate targets of monetary policy. Bringing together for the first time papers celebrating Alan Walters' achievements in this field, this book will be warmly welcomed by those with special interest in monetary economics, particularly policymakers, students and academics.

The authors of this book were asked to examine the issue of Britain leaving the EU and determine, from an economic or political economy point of view, what the appropriate role of international institutions should be in this debate. They were then asked to relate this to the reality that exists under the status quo or that might exist if Brexit occurred. In doing this, the volume can help achieve three objectives. First, it provides an analysis of the role that international institutions should play in the economic life of a free society. This is important, and rarely discussed in policy debates. In general, policy discussion tends to revolve around how to tweak the status quo - should we have more EU involvement in climate change policy or military intervention by the UN in this or that case, for example. Second, the authors implicitly lay out what a renegotiation agenda ought to look like if a country (whether Britain or not) wishes to reform the EU in a liberal direction, now or at some future time. At the time of writing this foreword, it is clear that David Cameron's agenda is not nearly radical enough, though it remains to be seen whether even that will be achieved. Indeed, it is not clear that the proposals of the UK government will even take the EU in the right direction. Any serious agenda to create a new settlement should start from first principles and take into consideration for what purposes the institution should exist. This would provide a benchmark against which success can be measured. Third, the authors provide a framework within which the practical options of remaining with a reformed EU and Brexit can be analysed. There are some authors who do not believe that international institutions are at all important in the area they discuss. Others believe that international cooperation can take place through bespoke, informal or ad hoc mechanisms, and that the EU itself need have no role. Presumably, in these cases, Brexit would be the logical way to get the best policy outcome. Another group of authors believes that a reformed or slimmed-down role for the EU would be satisfactory, or that the restraints that the EU currently puts on member states are really important in guaranteeing economic liberalism. As far as these areas are concerned, a renegotiated (or, in some cases, unreformed) EU would be the best option. One interesting issue is raised that perhaps transcends the discussions of particular policy areas. Rather than trying to renegotiate a better deal when it comes to labour market regulation or agriculture, it might be better to try to reshape the institutions of the EU. There might be wider support for that, and, in the long term, better institutions could lead to better policy. Overall, this is an important and unique contribution to the discussion about Britain's relationship with the EU. In the white noise of the referendum debate, serious long-term analysis of the precise role that international institutions should play in a free society, grounded in the context of the reality of the EU's current role, is refreshing. Its relevance will long outlive the referendum on Brexit that is likely to take place in the next 18 months.